US Elections

Federal, state, and primary contests, plus who ends up holding each chamber.

§ Primer

Federal, state, and primary contests, plus who ends up holding each chamber.

US elections are the deepest-liquidity class of prediction market. Every four-year cycle, Polymarket and Kalshi list contracts on presidential outcomes, partisan control of Congress, and individual Senate seats; Betfair carries the same questions in GBP for users outside the US. Manifold mirrors all of the above at play-money scale, useful as a wisdom-of-crowds sanity check against the real-money venues.

Resolution basis varies by market: AP race calls for individual Senate and House races, the formal seating of the Congress for chamber-control markets, convention roll-calls for nominee markets. Storm normalizes the cut-over date for each so a Polymarket "call" and a Kalshi "settlement" map onto the same canonical event.

Common pitfalls: write-in winners, special elections called to fill a vacancy mid-term, and markets that resolve on "candidate A wins" vs "candidate A is certified" — a distinction that has mattered in post-2020 cycles. The matcher penalizes state + year mismatches and nomination-vs-general confusion automatically.

US Elections

§ Primer

§ Matcher threshold

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