Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №083 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

US Elections

Thomas Massie Wins KY-04 Republican Primary 2026

thomas_massie_ky04_2026_primary resolves 2026-05-19

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
5 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 0.1¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Polymarket 50% · price 0¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Polymarket 50% · price 0¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Manifold Markets us
no no 0.543 — $1.6k $115 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.999 — $3.09M $612.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.990 — —1 —1 predictit
Manifold Markets us
yes yes 0.457 — $1.6k $115 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.0005 — $3.09M $612.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.010 — —1 —1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Kentucky's 4th congressional district ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no