Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №108 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

US Elections

Thomas Massie Wins KY-04 Republican Primary 2026

thomas_massie_ky04_2026_primary resolves 2026-05-19

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
3 · 3 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4620: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Two markets on identical event: Massie's success in KY-04 GOP primary. Market 1 has explicit date; Market 2 date unknown but clearly same race. High coherence. · cluster=2

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Manifold Markets us
no no 0.320 — $234 $9 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.275 — $246.7k $26.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
↳ no 0.265 — —1 —1 predictit
Manifold Markets us
yes yes 0.680 — $234 $9 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.725 — $246.7k $26.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
↳ yes 0.735 — —1 —1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no