US Elections
2028 Democratic presidential nominee
2028_democratic_nominee resolves 2028-08-24
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- dnc_convention
- Canonical outcomes
- 20
- Linked markets
- 33 · 7 venues
Person formally nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate at the 2028 DNC.
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Abigail Spanberger Abigail Spanberger | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Amy Klobuchar Amy Klobuchar | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Andy Beshear Andy Beshear | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.170 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
↳ Yes | 0.100 | — | $145 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.105 | — | $5.06M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0.103 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.090 | — | $13.34M | $336.1k | polymarket | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
NOT Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez No | 0.900 | — | $145 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ no | 0.895 | — | $5.06M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.909 | — | $13.34M | $336.1k | polymarket | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Andy Beshear Andy Beshear | 0.080 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.033 | — | $3.83M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.025 | — | $12.49M | $477.9k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.045 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Andy Beshear no | 0.968 | — | $3.83M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.976 | — | $12.49M | $477.9k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.955 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Bob Iger Bob Iger | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg | 0.060 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.053 | — | $4.16M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Pete Buttigieg | 0.082 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.043 | — | $11.05M | $421.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.060 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Pete Buttigieg no | 0.947 | — | $4.16M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.957 | — | $11.05M | $421.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.940 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Chris Murphy Chris Murphy | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Cory Booker Cory Booker | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Elissa Slotkin Elissa Slotkin | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Warren | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Gavin Newsom Gavin Newsom | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Gina Raimondo Gina Raimondo | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Graham Platner Graham Platner | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Gretchen Whitmer Gretchen Whitmer | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Kamala Harris Kamala Harris | 0.090 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.077 | — | $4.88M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Kamala Harris | 0.043 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.071 | — | $12.20M | $349.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.105 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Kamala Harris no | 0.923 | — | $4.88M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.928 | — | $12.20M | $349.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.895 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Hunter Biden Hunter Biden | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
J.B. Pritzker J.B. Pritzker | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
James Talarico James Talarico | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Jamie Raskin Jamie Raskin | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Jasmine Crockett Jasmine Crockett | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Jon Ossoff Jon Ossoff | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Josh Shapiro Josh Shapiro | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Kamala Harris Kamala Harris | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Mark Kelly Mark Kelly | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Maura Healey Maura Healey | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Michelle Obama Michelle Obama | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Mikie Sherrill Mikie Sherrill | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Wes Moore Wes Moore | 0.070 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.021 | — | $3.31M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Wes Moore | 0.010 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.013 | — | $16.65M | $517.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.035 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Wes Moore no | 0.980 | — | $3.31M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.988 | — | $16.65M | $517.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.965 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Gavin Newsom Gavin Newsom | 0.250 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
↳ Yes | 0.500 | — | $294 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.235 | — | $6.98M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Gavin Newsom | 0.252 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.245 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
NOT Gavin Newsom No | 0.500 | — | $294 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ no | 0.765 | — | $6.98M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.755 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
no no | 0.990 | — | $21.67M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Other / No candidate named Jon Ossoff | 0.072 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Other | 0.428 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Rahm Emanuel Rahm Emanuel | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Ro Khanna Ro Khanna | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Ruben Gallego Ruben Gallego | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Josh Shapiro Josh Shapiro | 0.140 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.050 | — | $3.90M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Josh Shapiro | 0.062 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.050 | — | $8.77M | $491.0k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.065 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Josh Shapiro no | 0.951 | — | $3.90M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.951 | — | $8.77M | $491.0k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.935 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Stephen A. Smith Stephen A. Smith | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Tim Walz Tim Walz | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Betfair Exchange
uk
|
Wes Moore Wes Moore | — | — | $51.2k | $38.4k | betfair | |
|
Crypto.com
us
|
Gretchen Whitmer Gretchen Whitmer | 0.060 | — | —1 | —1 | crypto_com | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
↳ yes | 0.0095 | — | $2.82M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Metaculus
us
|
↳ Gretchen Whitmer | 0.021 | — | $1.0k | —1 | metaculus | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.0085 | — | $10.42M | $746.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ yes | 0.025 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Gretchen Whitmer no | 0.991 | — | $2.82M | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.992 | — | $10.42M | $746.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
nz
|
↳ no | 0.975 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? | 0.100 | — | $145 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Futuur
curacao
|
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? | 0.460 | — | $294 | —1 | futuur | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
yes yes | 0.010 | — | $21.67M | —1 | kalshi |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Recent news
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.
§ Canonical outcomes
- newsom Gavin Newsom
- shapiro Josh Shapiro
- whitmer Gretchen Whitmer
- buttigieg Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete
- harris Kamala Harris Kamala
- aoc Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOCOcasio Cortez
- beshear Andy Beshear
- moore Wes Moore
- other Other / No candidate named
- barack_obama Barack Obama
- hilary_clinton Hilary Clinton
- hunter_biden Hunter Biden
- james_talarico James Talarico
- jamie_dimon Jamie Dimon
- jon_stewart Jon Stewart
- lebron_james Lebron James
- liz_cheney Liz Cheney
- smith Smith
- stephen Stephen
- zohran_mamdani Zohran Mamdani
§ Linked markets
USA - Presidential Election 2028 · Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
proposal #6557: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1.246060364
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $51.2k
- Status
- Active
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
proposal #18283: title_jaccard=1.00 · date_prox=0.80 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- b7e2d044-ebdc-414f-a98b-db5f0df44121
- Matched
- 27d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Inactive
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #324: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.23 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=newsom · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 222363
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $294
- Status
- Active
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #326: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=0.23 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=aoc · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 222364
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $145
- Status
- Active
Will Kamala Harris be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #478: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=harris · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-KH
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $4.88M
- Status
- Active
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #479: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=newsom · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-GN
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $6.98M
- Status
- Active
Will Gretchen Whitmer be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #480: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=whitmer · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-GW
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $2.82M
- Status
- Active
Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #481: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=shapiro · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-JS
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $3.90M
- Status
- Active
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #482: title_jaccard=0.57 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=aoc · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $5.06M
- Status
- Active
Will Pete Buttigieg be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #483: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=buttigieg · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-PB
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $4.16M
- Status
- Active
Will Wes Moore be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #484: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=moore · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-WM
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $3.31M
- Status
- Active
Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #485: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=beshear · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-AB
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $3.83M
- Status
- Active
Will Hilary Clinton be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6564: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-HCLI
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $1.44M
- Status
- Active
Will Stephen A. Smith be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6561: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-SAS
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $5.09M
- Status
- Active
Will James Talarico be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6559: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $4.96M
- Status
- Active
Will Hunter Biden be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6558: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-HBID
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $5.62M
- Status
- Active
Will Jon Stewart be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6562: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-JSTE
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $3.52M
- Status
- Active
Will Liz Cheney be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?
proposal #6565: chain from discovery proposal #6458: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXPRESNOMD-28-LC
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $1.05M
- Status
- Active
Who will be the 2028 Democratic nominee for President of the United States?
proposal #111336: title_jaccard=0.43 · date_prox=0.61 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 37322
- Matched
- 21d ago
- Volume
- $1.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #87: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=moore · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559656
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $16.65M
- Status
- Active
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #118: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=beshear · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559660
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $12.49M
- Status
- Active
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #121: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=harris · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559658
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $12.20M
- Status
- Active
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #126: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=buttigieg · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559654
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $11.05M
- Status
- Active
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #143: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=shapiro · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559655
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $8.77M
- Status
- Active
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #114: title_jaccard=0.38 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=aoc · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559653
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $13.34M
- Status
- Active
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #134: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=whitmer · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559659
- Matched
- 43d ago
- Volume
- $10.42M
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Wes Moore
proposal #828: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=moore · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31942
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Gretchen Whitmer
proposal #827: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=whitmer · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31939
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Pete Buttigieg
proposal #826: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=buttigieg · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31935
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Josh Shapiro
proposal #825: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=shapiro · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31940
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Andy Beshear
proposal #824: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=beshear · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31941
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Kamala Harris
proposal #823: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=harris · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31934
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Gavin Newsom
proposal #821: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=newsom · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31937
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active