Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №002 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

US Elections

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

2028_democratic_nominee resolves 2028-08-24

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
dnc_convention
Canonical outcomes
33
Linked markets
76 · 4 venues

Person formally nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate at the 2028 DNC.

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
Amy Klobuchar yes 0.0015 $460.4k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Amy Klobuchar no 0.999 $460.4k 1 kalshi
Futuur offshore
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Yes 0.100 $145 1 futuur
Kalshi us
yes 0.095 $4.18M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.085 $12.61M $210.8k polymarket
Futuur offshore
NOT Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez No 0.900 $145 1 futuur
Kalshi us
no 0.905 $4.18M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.915 $12.61M $210.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Andy Beshear yes 0.040 $3.33M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.025 $11.66M $300.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.065 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Andy Beshear no 0.961 $3.33M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.976 $11.66M $300.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.935 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Cory Booker yes 0.0075 $1.93M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $23.63M $884.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.015 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Cory Booker no 0.993 $1.93M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $23.63M $884.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.985 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Pete Buttigieg yes 0.056 $3.41M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.043 $10.34M $136.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.055 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Pete Buttigieg no 0.945 $3.41M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.958 $10.34M $136.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.945 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Roy Cooper yes 0.0045 $1.90M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $28.54M $1.22M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Roy Cooper no 0.996 $1.90M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.989 $28.54M $1.22M polymarket
Kalshi us
Jasmine Crockett yes 0.0010 $246.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $31.06M $1.75M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jasmine Crockett no 0.999 $246.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $31.06M $1.75M polymarket
Kalshi us
Mark Cuban yes 0.0075 $3.11M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $21.35M $1.85M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Mark Cuban no 0.993 $3.11M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $21.35M $1.85M polymarket
Kalshi us
Elissa Slotkin yes 0.0080 $1.03M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
yes 0.020 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Elissa Slotkin no 0.992 $1.03M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
no 0.980 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Elizabeth Warren yes 0.0015 $291.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Elizabeth Warren no 0.999 $291.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Rahm Emanuel yes 0.036 $4.02M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.024 $13.20M $602.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.040 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Rahm Emanuel no 0.964 $4.02M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.977 $13.20M $602.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.960 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
John Fetterman yes 0.0015 $1.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $18.90M $912.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT John Fetterman no 0.999 $1.15M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $18.90M $912.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Ruben Gallego yes 0.0075 $2.07M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $5.69M $558.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.015 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Ruben Gallego no 0.993 $2.07M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $5.69M $558.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.985 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Kamala Harris yes 0.079 $3.91M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.075 $11.29M $222.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.085 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Kamala Harris no 0.921 $3.91M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.924 $11.29M $222.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.915 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Mark Kelly yes 0.038 $4.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.026 $14.91M $163.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.045 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Mark Kelly no 0.962 $4.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.974 $14.91M $163.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.955 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Ro Khanna yes 0.030 $4.14M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.019 $9.93M $342.3k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Ro Khanna no 0.970 $4.14M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.981 $9.93M $342.3k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.965 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Mitch Landrieu yes 0.010 $3.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Mitch Landrieu no 0.990 $3.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Michelle Obama yes 0.013 $3.03M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $23.82M $1.18M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Michelle Obama no 0.987 $3.03M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $23.82M $1.18M polymarket
Kalshi us
Wes Moore yes 0.020 $2.75M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.013 $15.60M $453.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.025 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Wes Moore no 0.980 $2.75M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.988 $15.60M $453.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.975 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Phil Murphy yes 0.0047 $2.11M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $38.65M $2.47M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Phil Murphy no 0.995 $2.11M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $38.65M $2.47M polymarket
Futuur offshore
Gavin Newsom Yes 0.500 $196 1 futuur
Kalshi us
yes 0.255 $5.83M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
yes 0.255 1 1 predictit
Futuur offshore
NOT Gavin Newsom No 0.500 $196 1 futuur
Kalshi us
no 0.745 $5.83M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
no 0.745 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Beto O’Rourke yes 0.0015 $677.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $38.46M $1.52M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Beto O’Rourke no 0.999 $677.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $38.46M $1.52M polymarket
Kalshi us
Jon Ossoff yes 0.089 $3.51M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.066 $10.92M $117.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.085 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Jon Ossoff no 0.910 $3.51M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.934 $10.92M $117.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.915 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Jared Polis yes 0.0045 $780.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $24.65M $549.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jared Polis no 0.996 $780.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $24.65M $549.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
J.B Pritzker yes 0.029 $3.63M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.019 $13.82M $320.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.055 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT J.B Pritzker no 0.971 $3.63M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.981 $13.82M $320.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.945 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Gina Raimondo yes 0.0025 $1.06M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $30.96M $2.20M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Gina Raimondo no 0.998 $1.06M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $30.96M $2.20M polymarket
Kalshi us
Bernie Sanders yes 0.0015 $544.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $45.11M $1.33M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Bernie Sanders no 0.999 $544.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $45.11M $1.33M polymarket
Kalshi us
Josh Shapiro yes 0.053 $3.04M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.041 $7.48M $264.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.075 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Josh Shapiro no 0.947 $3.04M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.960 $7.48M $264.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.925 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Tim Walz yes 0.0015 $1.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $39.37M $1.91M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Tim Walz no 0.999 $1.30M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $39.37M $1.91M polymarket
Kalshi us
Raphael Warnock yes 0.0045 $1.45M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $28.20M $1.56M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Raphael Warnock no 0.996 $1.45M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $28.20M $1.56M polymarket
Kalshi us
Gretchen Whitmer yes 0.013 $2.21M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Gretchen Whitmer no 0.987 $2.21M 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
no 0.965 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Andrew Yang yes 0.0035 $1.14M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $45.14M $1.79M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Andrew Yang no 0.997 $1.14M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $45.14M $1.79M polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • newsom Gavin Newsom
  • shapiro Josh Shapiro
  • whitmer Gretchen Whitmer
  • buttigieg Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete
  • harris Kamala Harris Kamala
  • aoc Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOCOcasio Cortez
  • beshear Andy Beshear
  • moore Wes Moore
  • other Other / No candidate named
  • yang Andrew Yang
  • sanders Bernie Sanders
  • walz Tim Walz
  • murphy Phil Murphy
  • orourke Beto O’Rourke
  • raimondo Gina Raimondo
  • cooper Roy Cooper
  • warnock Raphael Warnock
  • polis Jared Polis
  • michelle-obama Michelle Obama
  • booker Cory Booker
  • crockett Jasmine Crockett
  • cuban Mark Cuban
  • fetterman John Fetterman
  • kelly Mark Kelly
  • pritzker J.B Pritzker
  • emanuel Rahm Emanuel
  • ossoff Jon Ossoff
  • khanna Ro Khanna
  • gallego Ruben Gallego
  • amy-klobuchar Amy Klobuchar
  • elissa-slotkin Elissa Slotkin
  • elizabeth-warren Elizabeth Warren
  • landrieu Mitch Landrieu