Event №002 · Last revised 2026-05-03
Open

US Elections

2028 Democratic presidential nominee

2028_democratic_nominee resolves 2028-08-24

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
dnc_convention
Canonical outcomes
20
Linked markets
33 · 7 venues

Person formally nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate at the 2028 DNC.

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Betfair Exchange uk
Abigail Spanberger Abigail Spanberger $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Amy Klobuchar Amy Klobuchar $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Andy Beshear Andy Beshear $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 0.170 1 1 crypto_com
Futuur curacao
Yes 0.100 $145 1 insufficient data futuur
Kalshi us
yes 0.105 $5.06M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 0.103 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.090 $13.34M $336.1k polymarket
Futuur curacao
NOT Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez No 0.900 $145 1 insufficient data futuur
Kalshi us
no 0.895 $5.06M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.909 $13.34M $336.1k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Bernie Sanders Bernie Sanders $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Andy Beshear Andy Beshear 0.080 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.033 $3.83M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.025 $12.49M $477.9k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.045 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Andy Beshear no 0.968 $3.83M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.976 $12.49M $477.9k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.955 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Bob Iger Bob Iger $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg 0.060 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.053 $4.16M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Pete Buttigieg 0.082 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.043 $11.05M $421.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.060 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Pete Buttigieg no 0.947 $4.16M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.957 $11.05M $421.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.940 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Chris Murphy Chris Murphy $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Cory Booker Cory Booker $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Elissa Slotkin Elissa Slotkin $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Warren $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Gavin Newsom Gavin Newsom $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Gina Raimondo Gina Raimondo $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Graham Platner Graham Platner $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Gretchen Whitmer Gretchen Whitmer $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Kamala Harris Kamala Harris 0.090 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.077 $4.88M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Kamala Harris 0.043 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.071 $12.20M $349.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.105 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Kamala Harris no 0.923 $4.88M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.928 $12.20M $349.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.895 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Hunter Biden Hunter Biden $51.2k $38.4k insufficient data betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
J.B. Pritzker J.B. Pritzker $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
James Talarico James Talarico $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Jamie Raskin Jamie Raskin $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Jasmine Crockett Jasmine Crockett $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Jon Ossoff Jon Ossoff $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Josh Shapiro Josh Shapiro $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Kamala Harris Kamala Harris $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Mark Kelly Mark Kelly $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Maura Healey Maura Healey $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Michelle Obama Michelle Obama $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Mikie Sherrill Mikie Sherrill $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Wes Moore Wes Moore 0.070 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.021 $3.31M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Wes Moore 0.010 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.013 $16.65M $517.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Wes Moore no 0.980 $3.31M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.988 $16.65M $517.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.965 1 1 predictit
Crypto.com us
Gavin Newsom Gavin Newsom 0.250 1 1 crypto_com
Futuur curacao
Yes 0.500 $294 1 insufficient data futuur
Kalshi us
yes 0.235 $6.98M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Gavin Newsom 0.252 $1.0k 1 metaculus
PredictIt nz
yes 0.245 1 1 predictit
Futuur curacao
NOT Gavin Newsom No 0.500 $294 1 insufficient data futuur
Kalshi us
no 0.765 $6.98M 1 kalshi
PredictIt nz
no 0.755 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
no no 0.990 $21.67M 1 kalshi
Crypto.com us
Other / No candidate named Jon Ossoff 0.072 1 1 crypto_com
Metaculus us
Other 0.428 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Betfair Exchange uk
Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Rahm Emanuel Rahm Emanuel $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Ro Khanna Ro Khanna $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Ruben Gallego Ruben Gallego $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Josh Shapiro Josh Shapiro 0.140 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.050 $3.90M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Josh Shapiro 0.062 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.050 $8.77M $491.0k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.065 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Josh Shapiro no 0.951 $3.90M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.951 $8.77M $491.0k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.935 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Stephen A. Smith Stephen A. Smith $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Tim Walz Tim Walz $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Betfair Exchange uk
Wes Moore Wes Moore $51.2k $38.4k betfair
Crypto.com us
Gretchen Whitmer Gretchen Whitmer 0.060 1 1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
yes 0.0095 $2.82M 1 kalshi
Metaculus us
Gretchen Whitmer 0.021 $1.0k 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0085 $10.42M $746.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.025 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Gretchen Whitmer no 0.991 $2.82M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.992 $10.42M $746.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.975 1 1 predictit
Futuur curacao
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 0.100 $145 1 futuur
Futuur curacao
Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028? 0.460 $294 1 futuur
Kalshi us
yes yes 0.010 $21.67M 1 kalshi

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Democratic ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • newsom Gavin Newsom
  • shapiro Josh Shapiro
  • whitmer Gretchen Whitmer
  • buttigieg Pete Buttigieg Mayor Pete
  • harris Kamala Harris Kamala
  • aoc Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez AOCOcasio Cortez
  • beshear Andy Beshear
  • moore Wes Moore
  • other Other / No candidate named
  • barack_obama Barack Obama
  • hilary_clinton Hilary Clinton
  • hunter_biden Hunter Biden
  • james_talarico James Talarico
  • jamie_dimon Jamie Dimon
  • jon_stewart Jon Stewart
  • lebron_james Lebron James
  • liz_cheney Liz Cheney
  • smith Smith
  • stephen Stephen
  • zohran_mamdani Zohran Mamdani