Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №105 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

Macro Indicators

Will Elon Musk Become a Trillionaire Before 2027?

elon_musk_trillionaire_2027 resolves 2026-12-31

Category
Macro Indicators
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
2 · 2 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4602: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Two markets asking identical question about Elon Musk's net worth reaching $1 trillion before 2027. Minor venue/timestamp differences do not affect coherence. Resolves as single event. · cluster=2

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
no no 0.285 — $260.5k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.250 — $450.2k $12.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
yes yes 0.715 — $260.5k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.750 — $450.2k $12.1k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • no +139bps
    polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 350 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 9m ago
  • yes +139bps
    kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 350 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 9m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 9m ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  2. 9m ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  3. 27m ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  4. 27m ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  5. 39m ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  6. 39m ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  7. 57m ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  8. 57m ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  9. 1h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  10. 1h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  11. 1h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  12. 1h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  13. 2h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  14. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  15. 2h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  16. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  17. 2h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  18. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  19. 2h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  20. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  21. 3h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  22. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  23. 3h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  24. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps
  25. 3h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  26. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  27. 3h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  28. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  29. 4h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  30. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  31. 4h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  32. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  33. 4h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  34. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  35. 4h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  36. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  37. 5h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  38. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  39. 5h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  40. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  41. 5h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.720 mid-based +89bps
  42. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.720 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +89bps
  43. 6h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.710 mid-based +189bps
  44. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.710 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +189bps
  45. 6h ago no polymarket YES 0.250 · kalshi NO 0.715 mid-based +139bps
  46. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.715 · polymarket NO 0.250 mid-based +139bps

Showing most recent 46 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no