§ Category
Macro Indicators
Recession calls, CPI prints, unemployment bands, year-end equity-index levels.
§ Primer
Recession calls, CPI prints, unemployment bands, year-end equity-index levels.
Macro-indicator markets fall into two buckets: dated print releases (monthly CPI, quarterly GDP, monthly non-farm payrolls) and broader regime questions (NBER-declared recession, year-end S&P closing level, year-end unemployment rate). ForecastEx specializes in settlement-only print-resolution contracts; Kalshi and Polymarket list decision-by-decision and band-by-band variants.
Canonical outcomes are typically categorical bands (e.g. CPI 2.0-2.5%, 2.5-3.0%, etc.) with the release-date window in canonical_resolution_date. The matcher has a print-month + year rule specifically for FOMC-adjacent macro markets so a "Dec CPI" market pairs with its equivalent correctly.
Pitfalls: revisions after the headline print, which BLS / BEA series resolves the market, and the difference between core and headline prints. Storm shows the venue's stated resolution source and the specific release date each market targets.
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