United States
Manifold Markets
Play-money platform — mana is not legal tender; not a prediction-market venue in the regulatory sense. Operated by Manifold for Charity (US 501c3-adjacent).
- Country
- United States
- Taker fee
- 0 bps
- Typical gas
- —
§ Notes
Fully public API — no auth for any read endpoint. Rate limit 500 req/min/IP. Markets use 'mana' (M$), a play-money token with a soft ~$0.01 USD peg via charity redemption. Storm does NOT treat Manifold as an arb venue — it's a SENTIMENT CROSS-REFERENCE, useful for (a) surfacing events the public cares about that haven't hit real-money venues yet, (b) wisdom-of-crowds calibration for the matching layer, and (c) pSEO content depth. Volumes and liquidity reported in mana-USD equivalent (volume_mana × 0.01). Market types: BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, FREE_RESPONSE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL, BOUNTIED_QUESTION — Storm ingests binary + multi-choice and ignores polls/bounties.
§ Coverage
- Markets ingested
- 1251
- Active
- 1125
- Delisted
- 126
- Events linked
- 10
- Last ingest
- 16m ago
§ Top events by volume
- 2028 US Presidential Election Winner US Elections $5.5k
- Republicans Win House Majority in 2026 US Elections $3.4k
- Will Kamala Harris Win the 2028 US Presidential Election? US Elections $1.9k
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee US Elections $664
- US Recession in 2026 Macro Indicators $637
- Republicans Win House Majority in 2026 US Elections $233
- Thomas Massie Wins KY-04 Republican Primary 2026 US Elections $230
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement signed in 2026 Geopolitics $104
- Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship? — $103
- June 2026 FOMC rate decision Fed Policy & Rates $37
- Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship? — $30
- Best Actor winner at the 99th Academy Awards Entertainment $2
§ Schema health
Storm runs a canary against every venue that compares live API responses against the last-known schema shape. Drift, missing fields, and unexpected null-rates raise alarms routed to the operator queue.
§ Recent markets
- Will the S&P 500 be greater than or equal to X at the end of May 2026?
- Sp500 up or down 30 April?
- GT v RCB, IPL 2026, 30th April
- Where will the talk on Information Markets given by Ashwin (creator of this Market) be held?
- Gas Price on May 1 2026
- Gas Price on May 1 2026
- Will gas hit ___ by end of April?
- What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?
- When will dalamud be released for patch 7.5?
- Free Lottery (LHAASO)
§ Ingest cadence and policy
Storm ingests from this venue on the standard pull cadence (default hourly for the daemon; on-demand via storm markets pull manifold). The ingester stores the raw payload alongside the normalized fields, so schema changes can be replayed without re-fetching.
Policy note: Fully public API — no auth for any read endpoint. Rate limit 500 req/min/IP. Markets use 'mana' (M$), a play-money token with a soft ~$0.01 USD peg via charity redemption. Storm does NOT treat Manifold as an arb venue — it's a SENTIMENT CROSS-REFERENCE, useful for (a) surfacing events the public cares about that haven't hit real-money venues yet, (b) wisdom-of-crowds calibration for the matching layer, and (c) pSEO content depth. Volumes and liquidity reported in mana-USD equivalent (volume_mana × 0.01). Market types: BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, FREE_RESPONSE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL, BOUNTIED_QUESTION — Storm ingests binary + multi-choice and ignores polls/bounties.