United States
Manifold Markets
Play-money platform — mana is not legal tender; not a prediction-market venue in the regulatory sense. Operated by Manifold for Charity (US 501c3-adjacent).
- Country
- United States
- Taker fee
- 0 bps
- Typical gas
- —
§ Notes
Fully public API — no auth for any read endpoint. Rate limit 500 req/min/IP. Markets use 'mana' (M$), a play-money token with a soft ~$0.01 USD peg via charity redemption. Storm does NOT treat Manifold as an arb venue — it's a SENTIMENT CROSS-REFERENCE, useful for (a) surfacing events the public cares about that haven't hit real-money venues yet, (b) wisdom-of-crowds calibration for the matching layer, and (c) pSEO content depth. Volumes and liquidity reported in mana-USD equivalent (volume_mana × 0.01). Market types: BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, FREE_RESPONSE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL, BOUNTIED_QUESTION — Storm ingests binary + multi-choice and ignores polls/bounties.
§ Coverage
- Markets ingested
- 2553
- Active
- 1132
- Delisted
- 1420
- Events linked
- 15
- Last ingest
- 1s ago
§ Top events by volume
- 2028 US Presidential Election Winner US Elections $12.7k
- 2028 US Presidential Election Winner US Elections $5.9k
- Republicans Win House Majority in 2026 US Elections $3.8k
- 2026 Maine Democratic Senate Nominee US Elections $2.5k
- Thomas Massie Wins KY-04 Republican Primary 2026 US Elections $1.6k
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner Party US Elections $1.5k
- US Recession in 2026 Macro Indicators $937
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee US Elections $709
- FIFA World Cup 2026 winner Sports $628
- Republican Control of US Senate 2026 US Elections $599
- Republicans Win House Majority in 2026 US Elections $328
- Will Ukraine Join NATO by 2033 Geopolitics $241
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner Party US Elections $241
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Winner Sports $210
- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement signed in 2026 Geopolitics $125
- Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship? — $112
- June 2026 FOMC rate decision Fed Policy & Rates $91
- 2028 Presidential US Elections $63
- Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship? — $30
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election Winner Party US Elections $20
§ Schema health
Storm runs a canary against every venue that compares live API responses against the last-known schema shape. Drift, missing fields, and unexpected null-rates raise alarms routed to the operator queue.
§ Recent markets
- 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix who qualifies better in each team
- Free Lottery (dark matter)
- When will Starship flight 15 happen?
- What time will maine announce the RCV results for ME-02
- Which countries will make the FIFA World Cup Round of 16?
- FIFA World Cup 19 June Matches Prop Bets!
- What will be true about the first quadrillionaire (Add Answers)
- Who will be an official candidate on the ballot for the Next UK Labour leadership election?
- Where will Giannis Antetuokoumpo be traded to?
- How many people will attend our 18th monthly NYC dinner?
§ Ingest cadence and policy
Storm ingests from this venue on the standard pull cadence (default hourly for the daemon; on-demand via storm markets pull manifold). The ingester stores the raw payload alongside the normalized fields, so schema changes can be replayed without re-fetching.
Policy note: Fully public API — no auth for any read endpoint. Rate limit 500 req/min/IP. Markets use 'mana' (M$), a play-money token with a soft ~$0.01 USD peg via charity redemption. Storm does NOT treat Manifold as an arb venue — it's a SENTIMENT CROSS-REFERENCE, useful for (a) surfacing events the public cares about that haven't hit real-money venues yet, (b) wisdom-of-crowds calibration for the matching layer, and (c) pSEO content depth. Volumes and liquidity reported in mana-USD equivalent (volume_mana × 0.01). Market types: BINARY, MULTIPLE_CHOICE, FREE_RESPONSE, PSEUDO_NUMERIC, POLL, BOUNTIED_QUESTION — Storm ingests binary + multi-choice and ignores polls/bounties.