Event №135 · Last revised 2026-04-30
Open

Geopolitics

Will Ukraine Join NATO by 2033

ukraine_nato_membership resolves 2033-01-01

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
1 · 1 venue

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Manifold Markets us
no no 0.727 $241 $24 manifold
Manifold Markets us
yes yes 0.273 $241 $24 manifold

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Ukraine–NATO relations ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no