Open
Geopolitics
Will Ukraine Join NATO by 2033
ukraine_nato_membership resolves 2033-01-01
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 1 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #8605: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=2 · venues=1 · candidates=0 · joke_filtered=4 · signature=[ukraine,nato,join]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.727 | — | $241 | $24 | manifold | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.273 | — | $241 | $24 | manifold |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will Ukraine join NATO by 2033?
proposal #8661: title_jaccard=1.00 · date_prox=0.97 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap
- External ID
- 0z22nhXeCipEuXho6qa8
- Matched
- 1h ago
- Volume
- $241
- Status
- Active