Sports
2026 MLB Home Run Derby Participant Selection
2026_selected_baseball_derby_home resolves 2026-07-14
- Category
- Sports
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 33
- Linked markets
- 27 · 1 venue
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kalshi
us
|
no no | 0.805 | — | $13.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
yes yes | 0.195 | — | $13.1k | —1 | kalshi |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Probability-sum arbs
For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.
-
kalshiSum of YES = $1.225 across 6 candidates — excess 23¢2250 bps
§ Recent news
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yordan-alvarez Yordan Alvarez
- pro-baseball-home-run Pro Baseball Home Run
- derby Derby
- byron-buxton Byron Buxton
- ben-rice Ben Rice
- christian-walker Christian Walker
- james-wood James Wood
- jordan-walker Jordan Walker
- mike-trout Mike Trout
- oneil-cruz Oneil Cruz
- shea-langeliers Shea Langeliers
- dillon-dingler Dillon Dingler
- junior-caminero Junior Caminero
- ian-happ Ian Happ
- juan-soto Juan Soto
- luke-raley Luke Raley
- julio-rodriguez Julio Rodriguez
- andy-pages Andy Pages
- michael-harris Michael Harris
- gunnar-henderson Gunnar Henderson
- drake-baldwin Drake Baldwin
- pete-alonso Pete Alonso
- shohei-ohtani Shohei Ohtani
- kyle-schwarber Kyle Schwarber
- munetaka-murakami Munetaka Murakami
- matt-olson Matt Olson
- aaron-judge Aaron Judge
- hunter-goodman Hunter Goodman
- colson-montgomery Colson Montgomery
- bryce-harper Bryce Harper
- miguel-vargas Miguel Vargas
- brandon-lowe Brandon Lowe
- other Other / No candidate named
§ Linked markets
Will Kyle Schwarber be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292828: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-KSCHWARBER12
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $341
- Status
- Active
Will Byron Buxton be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292835: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-BBUXTON25
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $247
- Status
- Active
Will Oneil Cruz be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292854: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-OCRUZ15
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Shea Langeliers be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292855: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-SLANGELIERS23
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $201
- Status
- Active
Will Junior Caminero be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292858: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JCAMINERO13
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $204
- Status
- Active
Will Luke Raley be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292862: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-LRALEY20
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $238
- Status
- Active
Will Pete Alonso be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292870: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-PALONSO25
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $172
- Status
- Active
Will Yordan Alvarez be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292831: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-YALVAREZ44
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $220
- Status
- Active
Will Matt Olson be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292836: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MOLSON28
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $384
- Status
- Active
Will Ian Happ be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292859: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-IHAPP8
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $67
- Status
- Active
Will Julio Rodriguez be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292864: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JRODRIGUEZ
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $100
- Status
- Active
Will Gunnar Henderson be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292868: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-GHENDERSON2
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $104
- Status
- Active
Will Aaron Judge be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292838: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-AJUDGE99
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Hunter Goodman be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292847: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-HGOODMAN15
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $787
- Status
- Active
Will Colson Montgomery be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292849: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-CMONTGOMERY12
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $551
- Status
- Active
Will Dillon Dingler be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292857: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-DDINGLER13
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $206
- Status
- Active
Will Juan Soto be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292860: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JSOTO22
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $84
- Status
- Active
Will Ben Rice be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292839: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-BRICE22
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $935
- Status
- Active
Will James Wood be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292842: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JWOOD29
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $146
- Status
- Active
Will Christian Walker be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292840: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-CWALKER8
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $334
- Status
- Active
Will Andy Pages be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292865: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-APAGES44
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $65
- Status
- Active
Will Drake Baldwin be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292869: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-DBALDWIN30
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $383
- Status
- Active
Will Brandon Lowe be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292844: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-BLOWE5
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $116
- Status
- Active
Will Jordan Walker be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292848: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-JWALKER18
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $872
- Status
- Active
Will Mike Trout be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292851: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MTROUT27
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $338
- Status
- Active
Will Miguel Vargas be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292845: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MVARGAS20
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $208
- Status
- Active
Will Michael Harris be selected to the 2026 Pro Baseball Home Run Derby?
proposal #292867: chain from discovery proposal #291342: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- KXMLBHRDERBYQUAL-26-MHARRIS23
- Matched
- 6d ago
- Volume
- $131
- Status
- Active