Geopolitics

Ceasefires, leader tenure, conflict dates, diplomatic milestones.

§ Primer

Ceasefires, leader tenure, conflict dates, diplomatic milestones.

Geopolitics markets are where cross-venue spreads show up most often: different venues list near-identical questions with different resolution dates or source criteria, and the prices can diverge materially. Polymarket dominates US-listed ceasefire, regime-change, and conflict markets; Betfair carries foreign elections in GBP; Manifold runs a long tail of speculative leader-in-power markets.

Outcome types are often categorical ("ceasefire this month / next month / later / never by deadline") so the canonical-outcomes model includes aliases for each named deadline. The matcher has a foreign-leader-countries rule table and a specialized foreign-election-adjectives set that helps distinguish e.g. a UK snap-election market from a US 2028 primary market with similar verbs.

Pitfalls: what counts as a "ceasefire" (duration, signatories, lapses), whether a leader "in power" means still seated or still surviving, and the resolution-date interaction with news cycle latency. Storm shows each venue's stated resolution basis per event.

Geopolitics

§ Primer

§ Matcher threshold

§ Active events

§ Recently resolved

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