Geopolitics
2026 Incheon Mayoral Election Winner
2026_incheon_mayoral_election_winner resolves 2026-06-03
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 10
- Linked markets
- 8 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #906: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on same election, same date, mutually exclusive candidates. Treated as categorical race with 'other' for unlisted winners. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Yoo Dong-soo Yes | 0.0015 | — | $98.1k | $6.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Yoo Dong-soo No | 0.999 | — | $98.1k | $6.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Lee Hak-jae Yes | 0.0025 | — | $34.4k | $7.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Lee Hak-jae No | 0.998 | — | $34.4k | $7.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Chung Il-young Yes | 0.0025 | — | $35.9k | $9.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Chung Il-young No | 0.998 | — | $35.9k | $9.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Bae June-young Yes | 0.0030 | — | $28.7k | $6.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Bae June-young No | 0.997 | — | $28.7k | $6.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Kim Kyo-heung Yes | 0.0035 | — | $54.3k | $6.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Kim Kyo-heung No | 0.997 | — | $54.3k | $6.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Park Nam-choon Yes | 0.0025 | — | $45.0k | $6.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Park Nam-choon No | 0.998 | — | $45.0k | $6.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Park Chan-dae Yes | 0.925 | — | $133.1k | $15.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Park Chan-dae No | 0.075 | — | $133.1k | $15.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Yoon Sang-hyun Yes | 0.0025 | — | $131.1k | $7.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Yoon Sang-hyun No | 0.998 | — | $131.1k | $7.2k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yoo_jeong_bok Yoo Jeong-bok
- park_chan_dae Park Chan-dae
- yoon_sang_hyun Yoon Sang-hyun
- other Other candidate
- dong-soo Yoo Dong-soo
- kyo-heung Kim Kyo-heung
- nam-choon Park Nam-choon
- il-young Chung Il-young
- hak-jae Lee Hak-jae
- june-young Bae June-young
§ Linked markets
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #978: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=park_chan_dae
- External ID
- 687176
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $133.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #979: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=yoon_sang_hyun
- External ID
- 687172
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $131.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7476: expansion: detected entity "Yoo Dong-soo" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687179
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $98.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Kim Kyo-heung win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7686: expansion: detected entity "Kim Kyo-heung" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687180
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $54.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Park Nam-choon win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7761: expansion: detected entity "Park Nam-choon" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687177
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $45.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Chung Il-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7869: expansion: detected entity "Chung Il-young" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687178
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $35.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Lee Hak-jae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7893: expansion: detected entity "Lee Hak-jae" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687175
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $34.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Bae June-young win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?
proposal #7976: expansion: detected entity "Bae June-young" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 687173
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $28.7k
- Status
- Active