Geopolitics
Which Party Wins Most Seats in 2026 Russian Parliamentary Election?
russia_2026_parliamentary_election_most_seats resolves 2026-09-30
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 5
- Linked markets
- 4 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #903: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets probe which Russian party wins most seats in 2026 parliamentary election. All share resolution date and event. Rodina, LDPR, and United Russia are named; 'other' captures remaining possibilities. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Communist Party Yes | 0.011 | — | $574.7k | $72.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Communist Party No | 0.990 | — | $574.7k | $72.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
United Russia (ER) Yes | 0.694 | — | $2.28M | $117.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT United Russia (ER) No | 0.306 | — | $2.28M | $117.8k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- ldpr Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
- united_russia United Russia (ER)
- rodina Rodina
- other Other party
- party Communist Party
§ Linked markets
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #1409: title_jaccard=0.45 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · canonical_outcome=united_russia
- External ID
- 1129894
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $483.9k
- Status
- Active
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #969: title_jaccard=0.42 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · canonical_outcome=united_russia
- External ID
- 1130012
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $1.80M
- Status
- Active
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #1412: expansion: detected entity "Communist Party" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1130013
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $486.7k
- Status
- Active
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #7526: title_jaccard=0.55 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=party
- External ID
- 1129896
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $87.9k
- Status
- Active