Event №561 · Last revised 2026-06-02
Open

Sports

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

2026_cup_world_fifa resolves 2026-07-12

Category
Sports
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
210
Linked markets
39 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Austria Yes 0.0085 $1.4k $536 polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Austria No 0.992 $1.4k $536 polymarket
Polymarket us
Belgium Yes 0.065 $8.4k $56.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Belgium No 0.935 $8.4k $56.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Canada Yes 0.0035 $37.07M $10.48M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Canada No 0.996 $37.07M $10.48M polymarket
Polymarket us
Colombia Yes 0.048 $6.1k $58.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Colombia No 0.953 $6.1k $58.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
Cristiano Ronaldo Yes 0.033 $3.2k $18.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Cristiano Ronaldo No 0.968 $3.2k $18.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Croatia Yes 0.033 $3.3k $54.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Croatia No 0.967 $3.3k $54.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ecuador Yes 0.025 $6.7k $51.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ecuador No 0.975 $6.7k $51.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Erling Haaland Yes 0.026 $2.0k $19.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Erling Haaland No 0.974 $2.0k $19.4k polymarket
Manifold Markets us
First-Time Winner yes 0.764 $207 $10 manifold
Manifold Markets us
NOT First-Time Winner no 0.236 $207 $10 manifold
Polymarket us
France Yes 0.195 $1.4k $2.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT France No 0.805 $1.4k $2.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Germany Yes 0.054 $30.63M $1.76M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Germany No 0.946 $30.63M $1.76M polymarket
Polymarket us
Harry Kane Yes 0.075 $4.1k $21.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Harry Kane No 0.925 $4.1k $21.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Japan Yes 0.163 $3.5k $1.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Japan No 0.838 $3.5k $1.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Lamine Yamal Yes 0.385 $1.6k $13.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Lamine Yamal No 0.615 $1.6k $13.2k polymarket
Limitless Exchange
Lionel Messi Yes 0.981 $566 1 limitless
Polymarket us
Yes 0.065 $1.5k $20.4k polymarket
Limitless Exchange
NOT Lionel Messi No 0.019 $566 1 limitless
Polymarket us
No 0.935 $1.5k $20.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Mexico Yes 0.015 $39.05M $2.12M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Mexico No 0.985 $39.05M $2.12M polymarket
Polymarket us
Morocco Yes 0.058 $22.1k $63.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Morocco No 0.943 $22.1k $63.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
Nation Yes 0.300 $26.2k $80.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nation No 0.700 $26.2k $80.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Netherlands Yes 0.040 $33.71M $1.83M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Netherlands No 0.960 $33.71M $1.83M polymarket
Manifold Markets us
no no 0.496 $3 $100 manifold
Polymarket us
Phil Foden Yes 0.0020 $3.4k $4.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Phil Foden No 0.998 $3.4k $4.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Portugal Yes 0.185 $27.6k $47.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Portugal No 0.815 $27.6k $47.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
Senegal Yes 0.028 $1.7k $51.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Senegal No 0.973 $1.7k $51.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
South Korea Yes 0.013 $1.3k $899 polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT South Korea No 0.988 $1.3k $899 polymarket
Polymarket us
Spain Yes 0.225 $1.5k $2.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Spain No 0.775 $1.5k $2.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Sweden Yes 0.0080 $1.4k $614 polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Sweden No 0.992 $1.4k $614 polymarket
Polymarket us
Switzerland Yes 0.038 $3.8k $65.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Switzerland No 0.962 $3.8k $65.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Top Goalscorer Yes 0.0080 $130.9k $165.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Top Goalscorer No 0.992 $130.9k $165.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
Turkiye Yes 0.043 $10.7k $59.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Turkiye No 0.958 $10.7k $59.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Uruguay Yes 0.038 $4.1k $48.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Uruguay No 0.962 $4.1k $48.7k polymarket
Manifold Markets us
yes yes 0.504 $3 $100 manifold

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Probability-sum arbs

For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.

  1. polymarket
    Sum of YES = $2.285 across 32 candidates — excess 129¢
    12855 bps

§ Recent news

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • richarlison Richarlison
  • goals Goals
  • full-tournament Full Tournament
  • haiti Haiti
  • scotland-jun Scotland Jun
  • pedro-goncalves Pedro Gonçalves
  • portugals Portugal's
  • new-york New York
  • san-antonio-pro-basketball San Antonio Pro Basketball
  • pro-basketball-playoffs Pro Basketball Playoffs
  • qatar Qatar
  • group-stage Group Stage
  • mens Men's
  • mexico Mexico
  • semifinals Semifinals
  • curacao Curacao
  • quarterfinals Quarterfinals
  • belgium Belgium
  • group Group
  • uruguay Uruguay
  • portugal Portugal
  • congo-dr-jun Congo DR Jun
  • switzerland Switzerland
  • bosnia Bosnia
  • herzegovina-jun Herzegovina Jun
  • san-antonio San Antonio
  • carolina-hurricanes Carolina Hurricanes
  • vegas-golden-knights Vegas Golden Knights
  • carolina-hurricanes-stanley Carolina Hurricanes Stanley
  • playoffs Playoffs
  • logan-stankoven Logan Stankoven
  • stanley Stanley
  • finals Finals®
  • mitch-marner Mitch Marner
  • spain Spain
  • who Who
  • colombia Colombia
  • danilo-barbosa Danilo Barbosa
  • silva Silva
  • brazils Brazil's
  • eder-militao Éder Militão
  • panama Panama
  • croatia-jun Croatia Jun
  • sweden Sweden
  • argentina Argentina
  • england England
  • round Round
  • paraguay-jun Paraguay Jun
  • injury Injury
  • dembele Dembélé
  • senegal Senegal
  • serge-gnabry Serge Gnabry
  • germanys Germany's
  • germany Germany
  • saudi-arabia-jun Saudi Arabia Jun
  • japan Japan
  • france France
  • egypt Egypt
  • nikolaj-ehlers Nikolaj Ehlers
  • croatia Croatia
  • algeria Algeria
  • erling-haaland Erling Haaland
  • sam-smith Sam Smith
  • final Final
  • xavi-simons Xavi Simons
  • netherlands Netherlands
  • mikal-bridges Mikal Bridges
  • stephon-castle Stephon Castle
  • senegal-jun Senegal Jun
  • ivory-coast Ivory Coast
  • ecuador-jun Ecuador Jun
  • south-africa South Africa
  • norway Norway
  • czechia Czechia
  • scotland Scotland
  • morocco-jun Morocco Jun
  • cape-verde Cape Verde
  • african African
  • jalen-brunson Jalen Brunson
  • canada Canada
  • japan-jun Japan Jun
  • egypt-jun Egypt Jun
  • white White
  • ghana Ghana
  • panama-jun Panama Jun
  • qatar-jun Qatar Jun
  • south-korea-jun South Korea Jun
  • iran-jun Iran Jun
  • cape-verde-islands-jun Cape Verde Islands Jun
  • new-zealand New Zealand
  • brazil-jun Brazil Jun
  • ivory-coast-jun Ivory Coast Jun
  • spain-jun Spain Jun
  • nation Nation
  • reach-final Reach Final
  • top-goalscorer Top Goalscorer
  • saudi-arabia Saudi Arabia
  • iraq Iraq
  • australia Australia
  • alvaro-morata Alvaro Morata
  • lamine-yamal Lamine Yamal
  • luis-diaz Luis Diaz
  • son-heung-min Son Heung-min
  • phil-foden Phil Foden
  • iraq-jun Iraq Jun
  • south-korea South Korea
  • czech-republic-jun Czech Republic Jun
  • massachusetts Massachusetts
  • uzbekistan Uzbekistan
  • turkiye Turkiye
  • tunisia Tunisia
  • iran Iran
  • new-zealand-jun New Zealand Jun
  • paraguay Paraguay
  • morocco Morocco
  • korea-republic Korea Republic
  • ir-iran IR Iran
  • ecuador Ecuador
  • congo-dr Congo DR
  • brazil Brazil
  • austria Austria
  • asia Asia
  • oceania-afc Oceania AFC
  • ofc OFC
  • south-american South American
  • european European
  • asian-oceanic Asian/Oceanic
  • haiti-jun Haiti Jun
  • uzbekistan-jun Uzbekistan Jun
  • cape-verde-islands Cape Verde Islands
  • cristiano-ronaldo Cristiano Ronaldo
  • curacao-jun Curaçao Jun
  • first-time-winner First-Time Winner
  • isak Isak
  • harry-kane Harry Kane
  • lautaro-martinez Lautaro Martinez
  • kylian-mbappe Kylian Mbappe
  • ousmane-dembele Ousmane Dembele
  • nick-woltemade Nick Woltemade
  • ferran-torres Ferran Torres
  • romelu-lukaku Romelu Lukaku
  • vinicius-junior Vinicius Junior
  • memphis-depay Memphis Depay
  • raphinha Raphinha
  • rodrygo Rodrygo
  • tunisia-jun Tunisia Jun
  • mohamed-salah Mohamed Salah
  • matheus-cunha Matheus Cunha
  • bukayo-saka Bukayo Saka
  • darwin-nunez Darwin Nunez
  • randal-kolo-muani Randal Kolo Muani
  • christian-pulisic Christian Pulisic
  • cody-gakpo Cody Gakpo
  • scott-mctominay Scott McTominay
  • uruguay-jun Uruguay Jun
  • jun Jun
  • mega-market-semi-finals Mega-Market Semi-Finals
  • victor-wembanyama Victor Wembanyama
  • pro-basketball Pro Basketball
  • algeria-jun Algeria Jun
  • og-anunoby OG Anunoby
  • switzerland-jun Switzerland Jun
  • sweden-jun Sweden Jun
  • colombia-jun Colombia Jun
  • czech-republic Czech Republic
  • south-africa-jun South Africa Jun
  • australia-jun Australia Jun
  • mega-market-final-tbd Mega-Market Final TBD
  • tbd TBD
  • brett-howden Brett Howden
  • shea-theodore Shea Theodore
  • turkiye-jun Türkiye Jun
  • austria-jun Austria Jun
  • ghana-jun Ghana Jun
  • burna-boy Burna Boy
  • jordan-jun Jordan Jun
  • mikel-oyarzabal Mikel Oyarzabal
  • julian-alvarez Julian Alvarez
  • jonathan-david Jonathan David
  • jordan Jordan
  • argentina-jun Argentina Jun
  • lionel-messi Lionel Messi
  • donald Donald
  • trump Trump
  • herzegovina Herzegovina
  • europe-uefa Europe UEFA
  • africa-caf Africa CAF
  • fermin-lopez Fermín López
  • spains Spain's
  • karl-anthony-towns Karl-Anthony Towns
  • devin-vassell Devin Vassell
  • josh-hart Josh Hart
  • deaaron-fox De'Aaron Fox
  • julian-champagnie Julian Champagnie
  • dylan-harper Dylan Harper
  • landry-shamet Landry Shamet
  • miles-mcbride Miles McBride
  • pavel-dorofeyev Pavel Dorofeyev
  • taylor-hall Taylor Hall
  • sebastian-aho Sebastian Aho
  • jackson-blake Jackson Blake
  • jack-eichel Jack Eichel
  • ivan-barbashev Ivan Barbashev
  • mark-stone Mark Stone
  • seth-jarvis Seth Jarvis
  • u-s U.S
  • nato NATO
  • diego-luna Diego Luna
  • usas USA's
  • other Other / No candidate named