Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №012 · Last revised 2026-05-27
Open

Geopolitics

2026 Brazilian Presidential Election Winner

2026_brazilian_presidential_election resolves 2026-10-04

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
16
Linked markets
14 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Geraldo Alckmin Yes 0.0035 — $3.69M $231.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Geraldo Alckmin No 0.997 — $3.69M $231.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Helder Barbalho Yes 0.0015 — $1.85M $644.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Helder Barbalho No 0.999 — $1.85M $644.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ronaldo Caiado Yes 0.021 — $4.15M $262.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ronaldo Caiado No 0.979 — $4.15M $262.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Tereza Cristina Yes 0.0015 — $1.77M $410.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Tereza Cristina No 0.999 — $1.77M $410.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Eduardo Bolsonaro Yes 0.0015 — $9.64M $1.04M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Eduardo Bolsonaro No 0.999 — $9.64M $1.04M polymarket
Polymarket us
Fernando Haddad Yes 0.018 — $5.78M $305.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Fernando Haddad No 0.982 — $5.78M $305.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior Yes 0.0015 — $10.00M $1.25M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior No 0.999 — $10.00M $1.25M polymarket
Polymarket us
Eduardo Leite Yes 0.0015 — $7.44M $1.32M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Eduardo Leite No 0.999 — $7.44M $1.32M polymarket
Futuur curacao
Luiz Inácio Lula Yes 0.530 — $2.5k —1 insufficient data futuur
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.505 — $6.51M $251.9k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.540 — —1 —1 predictit
Futuur curacao
NOT Luiz Inácio Lula No 0.470 — $2.5k —1 insufficient data futuur
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.495 — $6.51M $251.9k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.460 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
Aldo Rebelo Yes 0.0015 — $4.49M $1.24M polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Aldo Rebelo No 0.999 — $4.49M $1.24M polymarket
Polymarket us
Camilo Santana Yes 0.018 — $3.39M $269.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Camilo Santana No 0.982 — $3.39M $269.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Tarcisio de Freitas Yes 0.0015 — $12.75M $493.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Tarcisio de Freitas No 0.999 — $12.75M $493.2k polymarket
Futuur curacao
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election? Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election? 0.520 — $2.5k —1 futuur

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: 2026 Brazilian general election ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • tarcisio_de_freitas Tarcisio de Freitas
  • eduardo_bolsonaro Eduardo Bolsonaro
  • michelle_bolsonaro Michelle Bolsonaro
  • other Other candidate
  • junior Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
  • lula Luiz Inácio Lula
  • leite Eduardo Leite
  • haddad Fernando Haddad
  • caiado Ronaldo Caiado
  • alckmin Geraldo Alckmin
  • rebelo Aldo Rebelo
  • santana Camilo Santana
  • santos Renan Santos
  • renan-santos Renan Santos
  • barbalho Helder Barbalho
  • cristina Tereza Cristina