Open
Geopolitics
2026 Brazilian Presidential Election Winner
2026_brazilian_presidential_election resolves 2026-10-04
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 14
- Linked markets
- 14 · 3 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #888: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on the same election date asking about specific candidates. Forms coherent categorical event of 2026 Brazilian presidential winner, though other candidates possible. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Geraldo Alckmin Yes | 0.0035 | — | $1.75M | $95.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Geraldo Alckmin No | 0.997 | — | $1.75M | $95.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Ronaldo Caiado Yes | 0.017 | — | $2.00M | $122.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Ronaldo Caiado No | 0.984 | — | $2.00M | $122.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Eduardo Bolsonaro Yes | 0.0025 | — | $7.29M | $556.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Eduardo Bolsonaro No | 0.998 | — | $7.29M | $556.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Fernando Haddad Yes | 0.033 | — | $3.96M | $141.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Fernando Haddad No | 0.968 | — | $3.96M | $141.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior Yes | 0.0015 | — | $7.11M | $658.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior No | 0.999 | — | $7.11M | $658.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Eduardo Leite Yes | 0.0015 | — | $4.11M | $779.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Eduardo Leite No | 0.999 | — | $4.11M | $779.7k | polymarket | |
|
Futuur
offshore
|
Luiz Inácio Lula Yes | 0.530 | — | $2.2k | —1 | futuur | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.375 | — | $4.93M | $83.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.540 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Futuur
offshore
|
NOT Luiz Inácio Lula No | 0.470 | — | $2.2k | —1 | futuur | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.625 | — | $4.93M | $83.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.460 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Aldo Rebelo Yes | 0.0015 | — | $2.30M | $587.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Aldo Rebelo No | 0.999 | — | $2.30M | $587.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Renan Santos Yes | 0.047 | — | $199.8k | $13.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Renan Santos No | 0.953 | — | $199.8k | $13.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Camilo Santana Yes | 0.019 | — | $1.58M | $85.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Camilo Santana No | 0.981 | — | $1.58M | $85.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Renan Santos Yes | 0.058 | — | $4.44M | $181.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Renan Santos No | 0.943 | — | $4.44M | $181.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Tarcisio de Freitas Yes | 0.0025 | — | $8.60M | $383.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Tarcisio de Freitas No | 0.998 | — | $8.60M | $383.6k | polymarket |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
-
Luiz Inácio Lula +1049bpspolymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470
§ Spread history
- 11m ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 29m ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 41m ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 59m ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 1h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 1h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 2h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 2h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 2h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 2h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 3h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 3h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 3h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 3h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 4h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 4h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 4h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 4h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 5h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 5h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 5h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 6h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 6h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 6h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 6h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 7h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 7h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 7h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 7h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 8h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.385 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +949bps
- 11h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.385 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +949bps
- 11h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.385 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +949bps
- 11h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.385 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +949bps
- 12h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 12h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 12h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 12h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 13h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 13h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 13h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 13h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 13h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 14h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 14h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 14h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 15h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 16h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 16h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 16h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 16h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 17h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 17h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 17h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 17h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 17h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 18h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 18h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 18h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 18h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 19h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 19h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 19h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 19h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 20h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 20h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 20h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 20h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.470 mid-based +1049bps
- 21h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 21h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 21h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 21h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 22h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 22h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 22h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 22h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 23h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 23h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 23h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 23h ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 1d ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
- 1d ago Luiz Inácio Lula polymarket YES 0.375 · futuur NO 0.530 mid-based +449bps
Showing most recent 162 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →
§ Canonical outcomes
- tarcisio_de_freitas Tarcisio de Freitas
- eduardo_bolsonaro Eduardo Bolsonaro
- michelle_bolsonaro Michelle Bolsonaro
- other Other candidate
- junior Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior
- lula Luiz Inácio Lula
- leite Eduardo Leite
- haddad Fernando Haddad
- caiado Ronaldo Caiado
- alckmin Geraldo Alckmin
- rebelo Aldo Rebelo
- santana Camilo Santana
- santos Renan Santos
- renan-santos Renan Santos
§ Linked markets
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil's 2026 presidential election?
proposal #3655: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=0.97 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=lula
- External ID
- 228861
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #948: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=eduardo_bolsonaro
- External ID
- 601823
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $7.29M
- Status
- Active
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #947: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=tarcisio_de_freitas
- External ID
- 601818
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $8.60M
- Status
- Active
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1070: expansion: detected entity "Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601824
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $7.11M
- Status
- Active
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1084: expansion: detected entity "Luiz Inácio Lula" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601819
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.93M
- Status
- Active
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1090: expansion: detected entity "Eduardo Leite" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601831
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.11M
- Status
- Active
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1091: expansion: detected entity "Fernando Haddad" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601821
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $3.96M
- Status
- Active
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1122: expansion: detected entity "Ronaldo Caiado" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601827
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.00M
- Status
- Active
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1134: expansion: detected entity "Geraldo Alckmin" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601830
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $1.75M
- Status
- Active
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1135: expansion: detected entity "Aldo Rebelo" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601832
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.30M
- Status
- Active
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1345: expansion: detected entity "Camilo Santana" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601829
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $1.58M
- Status
- Active
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #1086: expansion: detected entity "Renan Santos" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 601825
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.44M
- Status
- Active
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #2711: expansion: detected entity "Renan Santos" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1366014
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $199.8k
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Luiz Inácio Lula
proposal #5023: title_jaccard=0.57 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=lula
- External ID
- predictit_contract_33623
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active