Geopolitics
Next Leader of the Chinese Communist Party Before 2045
ccp_leader_next_before_2045 resolves 2045-01-01
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 13
- Linked markets
- 12 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5298: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same underlying event: who becomes CCP leader by Jan 1, 2045. Same venue, same deadline. Canonical categorical consolidates them. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kalshi
us
|
Li Ganjie yes | 0.044 | — | $242 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Li Ganjie no | 0.956 | — | $242 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
He Lifeng yes | 0.026 | — | $248 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT He Lifeng no | 0.974 | — | $248 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Chen Jining yes | 0.175 | — | $5.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Chen Jining no | 0.825 | — | $5.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Yin Li yes | 0.026 | — | $2.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Yin Li no | 0.975 | — | $2.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Ma Xingrui yes | 0.011 | — | $432 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Ma Xingrui no | 0.990 | — | $432 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Chen Min'er yes | 0.030 | — | $495 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Chen Min'er no | 0.970 | — | $495 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Cai Qi yes | 0.041 | — | $1.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Cai Qi no | 0.959 | — | $1.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Li Qiang yes | 0.140 | — | $12.3k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Li Qiang no | 0.860 | — | $12.3k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Li Xi yes | 0.175 | — | $3.0k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Li Xi no | 0.825 | — | $3.0k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Ding Xuexiang yes | 0.240 | — | $4.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Ding Xuexiang no | 0.760 | — | $4.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Yin Yong yes | 0.027 | — | $269 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Yin Yong no | 0.973 | — | $269 | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Zhao Leji yes | 0.155 | — | $2.5k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Zhao Leji no | 0.845 | — | $2.5k | —1 | kalshi |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- zhao_leji Zhao Leji
- he_lifeng He Lifeng
- ma_xingrui Ma Xingrui
- other Other
- xuexiang Ding Xuexiang
- jining Chen Jining
- qiang Li Qiang
- qi Cai Qi
- xi Li Xi
- ganjie Li Ganjie
- miner Chen Min'er
- yong Yin Yong
- li Yin Li
§ Linked markets
Will Zhao Leji become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5484: title_jaccard=0.55 · date_prox=0.99 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=zhao_leji
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-ZLEJ
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.5k
- Status
- Active
Will He Lifeng become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5485: title_jaccard=0.55 · date_prox=0.99 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=he_lifeng
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-HLIF
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $248
- Status
- Active
Will Ma Xingrui become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5486: title_jaccard=0.55 · date_prox=0.99 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=ma_xingrui
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-MXIN
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $432
- Status
- Active
Will Ding Xuexiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5487: expansion: detected entity "Ding Xuexiang" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-DXUE
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Chen Jining become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5488: expansion: detected entity "Chen Jining" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-CJIN
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Li Qiang become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5489: expansion: detected entity "Li Qiang" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LQIA
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $12.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Cai Qi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5490: expansion: detected entity "Cai Qi" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-CQI
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $1.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Li Xi become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5491: expansion: detected entity "Li Xi" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LXI
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $3.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Li Ganjie become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5493: expansion: detected entity "Li Ganjie" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-LGAN
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $242
- Status
- Active
Will Chen Min'er become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5495: expansion: detected entity "Chen Min'er" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-CMIN
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $495
- Status
- Active
Will Yin Yong become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5497: expansion: detected entity "Yin Yong" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-YYON
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $269
- Status
- Active
Will Yin Li become the next leader of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) before Jan 1, 2045?
proposal #5492: expansion: detected entity "Yin Li" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXXISUCCESSOR-45JAN01-YLI
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.4k
- Status
- Active