Open
Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement signed in 2026
russia_ukraine_ceasefire_2026 resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- formal_signed_document
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 2 venues
Is a bilateral or multilateral ceasefire agreement covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict formally signed by both Russian and Ukrainian representatives during 2026?
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.751 | — | $104 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.745 | — | $14.50M | $478.0k | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.249 | — | $104 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.255 | — | $14.50M | $478.0k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
proposal #300: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.97 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap
- External ID
- EzZLpOlLCg
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $104
- Status
- Active
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
proposal #94: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap
- External ID
- 567687
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $14.50M
- Status
- Active