Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №008 · Last revised 2026-05-03
Open

Geopolitics

Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement signed in 2026

russia_ukraine_ceasefire_2026 resolves 2026-12-31

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
formal_signed_document
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
5 · 3 venues

Is a bilateral or multilateral ceasefire agreement covering the Russia-Ukraine conflict formally signed by both Russian and Ukrainian representatives during 2026?

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 32.0¢ band 32.0–32.0¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Manifold Markets 33% · price 29¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Polymarket 33% · price 49¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Hypermind 33% · price 18¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Hypermind fr
no No 0.820 — —1 —1 hypermind
Manifold Markets us
↳ no 0.695 — $144 $11 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.719 — $16.32M $583.3k insufficient data polymarket
Hypermind fr
yes Yes 0.180 — —1 —1 hypermind
Manifold Markets us
↳ yes 0.305 — $144 $11 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.281 — $16.32M $583.3k insufficient data polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Russia–Ukraine relations ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no