Event №107 · Last revised 2026-04-30
Open

US Elections

2026 California Governor Election Winner

2026_california_governor resolves 2026-11-03

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
28
Linked markets
61 · 5 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
PredictIt nz
Ché Ahn yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
PredictIt nz
NOT Ché Ahn no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Alex Padilla Yes 0.0015 $1.96M $321.6k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Alex Padilla No 0.999 $1.96M $321.6k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Antonio Villaraigosa Yes 0.0015 $1.59M $373.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Antonio Villaraigosa No 0.998 $1.59M $373.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Betty Yee Yes 0.0005 $1.75M $347.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Betty Yee No 1.000 $1.75M $347.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Butch Ware Yes 0.0015 $1.19M $311.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Butch Ware No 0.999 $1.19M $311.0k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Chad Bianco Chad Bianco $216 $269 betfair
Metaculus us
Chad Bianco 0.013 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0025 $1.87M $126.3k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Chad Bianco No 0.997 $1.87M $126.3k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Daniel Mercuri Yes 0.0005 $1.39M $373.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Daniel Mercuri No 1.000 $1.39M $373.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
Elaine Culotti Yes 0.0005 $1.26M $385.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Elaine Culotti No 1.000 $1.26M $385.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
Eleni Kounalakis Yes 0.0005 $1.43M $352.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Eleni Kounalakis No 1.000 $1.43M $352.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Eric Swalwell Eric Swalwell $216 $269 betfair
Metaculus us
Eric Swalwell 0.0010 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0005 $1.49M $294.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Eric Swalwell No 1.000 $1.49M $294.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Derek Grasty Yes 0.0005 $2.7k $33.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Derek Grasty No 1.000 $2.7k $33.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
Kamala Harris Yes 0.0005 $1.56M $245.2k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Kamala Harris No 1.000 $1.56M $245.2k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Katie Porter Katie Porter $216 $269 betfair
Metaculus us
Katie Porter 0.032 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0005 $1.76M $289.4k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Katie Porter No 1.000 $1.76M $289.4k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Kyle Langford Yes 0.0005 $1.82M $347.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Kyle Langford No 1.000 $1.82M $347.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
Leo Zacky Yes 0.0005 $1.10M $375.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Leo Zacky No 0.999 $1.10M $375.0k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Matt Mahan Matt Mahan $216 $269 betfair
Futuur curacao
Matt Mahan 0.030 $2.2k 1 futuur
Metaculus us
Matt Mahan 0.011 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0015 $1.28M $168.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Matt Mahan No 0.999 $1.28M $168.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Michael Younger Yes 0.0005 $1.55M $341.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Michael Younger No 1.000 $1.55M $341.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Nicole Shanahan Yes 0.0015 $1.66M $178.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nicole Shanahan No 0.999 $1.66M $178.2k polymarket
Metaculus us
Other Other 0.011 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Rick Caruso Yes 0.0015 $1.75M $394.1k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Rick Caruso No 0.999 $1.75M $394.1k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Stephen Cloobeck Yes 0.0005 $1.57M $322.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Stephen Cloobeck No 1.000 $1.57M $322.8k polymarket
Betfair Exchange uk
Steve Hilton Steve Hilton $216 $269 betfair
Futuur curacao
Steve Hilton 0.070 $2.2k 1 futuur
Metaculus us
Steve Hilton 0.092 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.096 $2.28M $193.4k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.080 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Steve Hilton No 0.904 $2.28M $193.4k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.920 1 1 predictit
Betfair Exchange uk
Tom Steyer Tom Steyer $216 $269 betfair
Futuur curacao
Tom Steyer 0.080 $2.2k 1 futuur
Metaculus us
Tom Steyer 0.398 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0060 $4.57M $158.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Tom Steyer No 0.994 $4.57M $158.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Toni Atkins Yes 0.0005 $1.55M $350.0k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Toni Atkins No 1.000 $1.55M $350.0k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Tony Thurmond Yes 0.0005 $1.42M $325.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Tony Thurmond No 0.999 $1.42M $325.3k polymarket
Futuur curacao
Xavier Becerra Xavier Becerra 0.900 $2.2k 1 futuur
Metaculus us
Xavier Becerra 0.443 $146 1 metaculus
Polymarket us
Yes 0.880 $1.61M $152.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
yes 0.915 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Xavier Becerra No 0.120 $1.61M $152.7k polymarket
PredictIt nz
no 0.085 1 1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Probability-sum arbs

For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.

  1. polymarket
    Sum of YES = $1.996 across 32 candidates — excess 100¢
    9965 bps

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: 2026 California gubernatorial election ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • alex_padilla Alex Padilla
  • antonio_villaraigosa Antonio Villaraigosa
  • betty_yee Betty Yee
  • butch_ware Butch Ware
  • chad_bianco Chad Bianco
  • daniel_mercuri Daniel Mercuri
  • elaine_culotti Elaine Culotti
  • eleni_kounalakis Eleni Kounalakis
  • eric_swalwell Eric Swalwell
  • kamala_harris Kamala Harris
  • katie_porter Katie Porter
  • kyle_langford Kyle Langford
  • leo_zacky Leo Zacky
  • matt_mahan Matt Mahan
  • michael_younger Michael Younger
  • nicole_shanahan Nicole Shanahan
  • rick_caruso Rick Caruso
  • stephen_cloobeck Stephen Cloobeck
  • steve_hilton Steve Hilton
  • tom_steyer Tom Steyer
  • toni_atkins Toni Atkins
  • tony_thurmond Tony Thurmond
  • xavier_becerra Xavier Becerra
  • other Other
  • calderon Ian Calderon
  • jones Brandon Jones
  • grasty Derek Grasty
  • ahn Ché Ahn