Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №139 · Last revised 2026-04-30
Open

US Elections

2026 California Governor Election Winner

2026_california_governor resolves 2026-11-03

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
27
Linked markets
48 · 3 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5678: llm_two_phase:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · phase-b · matched=23 · venues=1 · candidates=23 · joke_filtered=0 · signature=[2026,california,governor]

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Alex Padilla Yes 0.0025 $518.5k $133.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Alex Padilla No 0.998 $518.5k $133.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Antonio Villaraigosa yes 0.0055 $541 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Antonio Villaraigosa no 0.995 $541 1 kalshi
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Betty Yee Yes 0.0025 $420.5k $147.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Betty Yee No 0.998 $420.5k $147.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Butch Ware Yes 0.0015 $473.5k $149.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Butch Ware No 0.999 $473.5k $149.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ian Calderon Yes 0.022 $112.2k $2.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ian Calderon No 0.978 $112.2k $2.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Chad Bianco yes 0.052 $20.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.025 $998.4k $87.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Chad Bianco no 0.948 $20.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.975 $998.4k $87.4k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.965 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Daniel Mercuri Yes 0.0025 $442.8k $138.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Daniel Mercuri No 0.998 $442.8k $138.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
Elaine Culotti Yes 0.0025 $239.8k $82.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Elaine Culotti No 0.998 $239.8k $82.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Eleni Kounalakis Yes 0.0025 $575.5k $152.3k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Eleni Kounalakis No 0.998 $575.5k $152.3k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Eric Swalwell yes 0.0025 $23.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0023 $536.5k $139.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Eric Swalwell no 0.998 $23.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.998 $536.5k $139.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Derek Grasty Yes 0.017 $18.3k $17.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Derek Grasty No 0.984 $18.3k $17.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Brandon Jones Yes 0.015 $36.0k $15.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Brandon Jones No 0.985 $36.0k $15.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
Kamala Harris yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
PredictIt us
NOT Kamala Harris no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Katie Porter yes 0.021 $16.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.041 $905.1k $89.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.055 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Katie Porter no 0.980 $16.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.960 $905.1k $89.9k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.945 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Kyle Langford Yes 0.0015 $923.1k $152.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Kyle Langford No 0.999 $923.1k $152.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Leo Zacky Yes 0.0025 $437.6k $138.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Leo Zacky No 0.998 $437.6k $138.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
Matt Mahan yes 0.036 $18.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.034 $475.1k $114.1k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.090 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Matt Mahan no 0.964 $18.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.966 $475.1k $114.1k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.910 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Michael Younger Yes 0.0025 $500.0k $146.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Michael Younger No 0.998 $500.0k $146.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Nicole Shanahan Yes 0.0025 $420.7k $98.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nicole Shanahan No 0.998 $420.7k $98.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Rick Caruso Yes 0.0025 $577.2k $113.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Rick Caruso No 0.998 $577.2k $113.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Stephen Cloobeck Yes 0.0025 $362.5k $127.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Stephen Cloobeck No 0.998 $362.5k $127.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Steve Hilton yes 0.295 $27.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.118 $1.10M $97.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.085 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Steve Hilton no 0.705 $27.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.882 $1.10M $97.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.915 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Tom Steyer yes 0.385 $48.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.600 $24.6k $21.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.495 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Tom Steyer no 0.615 $48.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.400 $24.6k $21.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.505 1 1 predictit
PredictIt us
Toni Atkins yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
PredictIt us
NOT Toni Atkins no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Tony Thurmond Yes 0.0015 $486.1k $120.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Tony Thurmond No 0.999 $486.1k $120.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Xavier Becerra yes 0.290 $46.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.333 $675.2k $64.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.355 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Xavier Becerra no 0.710 $46.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.667 $675.2k $64.2k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.645 1 1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • Chad Bianco +74bps
    polymarket YES 0.024 · kalshi NO 0.948 285 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago
  • Matt Mahan +329bps
    kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.910 540 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago
  • Steve Hilton +1734bps
    polymarket YES 0.101 · kalshi NO 0.705 1945 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago
  • Tom Steyer +1939bps
    kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.400 2150 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago
  • Xavier Becerra +169bps
    kalshi YES 0.295 · polymarket NO 0.667 380 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 8m ago Chad Bianco polymarket YES 0.024 · kalshi NO 0.948 mid-based +74bps
  2. 8m ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.910 mid-based +329bps
  3. 8m ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.101 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1734bps
  4. 8m ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.400 mid-based +1939bps
  5. 8m ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.295 · polymarket NO 0.667 mid-based +169bps
  6. 26m ago Chad Bianco polymarket YES 0.024 · kalshi NO 0.948 mid-based +74bps
  7. 26m ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.910 mid-based +329bps
  8. 26m ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.101 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1734bps
  9. 26m ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.400 mid-based +1939bps
  10. 26m ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.295 · polymarket NO 0.667 mid-based +169bps
  11. 38m ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  12. 38m ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.865 mid-based +779bps
  13. 38m ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.101 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1734bps
  14. 38m ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.420 mid-based +1739bps
  15. 38m ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.295 · polymarket NO 0.667 mid-based +169bps
  16. 56m ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.790 mid-based +1369bps
  17. 56m ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.865 mid-based +779bps
  18. 56m ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.101 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1734bps
  19. 56m ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.415 mid-based +1789bps
  20. 56m ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.295 · polymarket NO 0.667 mid-based +169bps
  21. 1h ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  22. 1h ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.865 mid-based +779bps
  23. 1h ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.102 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1714bps
  24. 1h ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.410 mid-based +1839bps
  25. 1h ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.275 · polymarket NO 0.667 mid-based +369bps
  26. 1h ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  27. 1h ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.865 mid-based +779bps
  28. 1h ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.102 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1714bps
  29. 1h ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.410 mid-based +1839bps
  30. 1h ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.275 · polymarket NO 0.666 mid-based +374bps
  31. 2h ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  32. 2h ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.890 mid-based +529bps
  33. 2h ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.103 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1704bps
  34. 2h ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.390 mid-based +2039bps
  35. 2h ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.275 · polymarket NO 0.665 mid-based +389bps
  36. 2h ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  37. 2h ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.890 mid-based +529bps
  38. 2h ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.103 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1704bps
  39. 2h ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.390 mid-based +2039bps
  40. 2h ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.275 · polymarket NO 0.665 mid-based +389bps
  41. 2h ago Chad Bianco kalshi YES 0.052 · polymarket NO 0.810 mid-based +1169bps
  42. 2h ago Matt Mahan kalshi YES 0.036 · polymarket NO 0.890 mid-based +529bps
  43. 2h ago Steve Hilton polymarket YES 0.104 · kalshi NO 0.705 mid-based +1699bps
  44. 2h ago Tom Steyer kalshi YES 0.385 · polymarket NO 0.390 mid-based +2039bps
  45. 2h ago Xavier Becerra kalshi YES 0.275 · polymarket NO 0.665 mid-based +389bps

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§ Canonical outcomes

  • alex_padilla Alex Padilla
  • antonio_villaraigosa Antonio Villaraigosa
  • betty_yee Betty Yee
  • butch_ware Butch Ware
  • chad_bianco Chad Bianco
  • daniel_mercuri Daniel Mercuri
  • elaine_culotti Elaine Culotti
  • eleni_kounalakis Eleni Kounalakis
  • eric_swalwell Eric Swalwell
  • kamala_harris Kamala Harris
  • katie_porter Katie Porter
  • kyle_langford Kyle Langford
  • leo_zacky Leo Zacky
  • matt_mahan Matt Mahan
  • michael_younger Michael Younger
  • nicole_shanahan Nicole Shanahan
  • rick_caruso Rick Caruso
  • stephen_cloobeck Stephen Cloobeck
  • steve_hilton Steve Hilton
  • tom_steyer Tom Steyer
  • toni_atkins Toni Atkins
  • tony_thurmond Tony Thurmond
  • xavier_becerra Xavier Becerra
  • other Other
  • calderon Ian Calderon
  • jones Brandon Jones
  • grasty Derek Grasty