Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №127 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

Geopolitics

Next Prime Minister of Israel

israel_next_prime_minister resolves 2045-01-01

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
15
Linked markets
7 · 2 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5300: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · [merged 3 clusters] Three individual-candidate binary markets asking who will be 'next PM of Israel'. Same underlying question, distinct candidates; markets differ on resolution date but 2045 is reasonable far-horizon estimate for uncertain succession event. | merged: Three markets on same underlying event (Israel's next PM) with two named candidates. Markets disagree on resolution deadline (2026 vs 2045); used latest. Categorical pattern applies. | merged: Three markets probe the same underlying event (next Israel · cluster=9

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
Naftali Bennett yes 0.510 — $25.4k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Naftali Bennett no 0.490 — $25.4k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Benny Gantz Yes 0.0035 — $228.7k $45.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Benny Gantz No 0.997 — $228.7k $45.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
Yair Golan Yes 0.0025 — $377.6k $34.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Yair Golan No 0.998 — $377.6k $34.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Itamar Ben Gvir Yes 0.0040 — $194.1k $42.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Itamar Ben Gvir No 0.996 — $194.1k $42.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
Israel Katz yes 0.085 — $10.9k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Israel Katz no 0.915 — $10.9k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yair Lapid Yes 0.0095 — $383.5k $29.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Yair Lapid No 0.991 — $383.5k $29.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Naftali Bennett Yes 0.395 — $1.05M $47.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Naftali Bennett No 0.605 — $1.05M $47.9k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • gallant Yoav Gallant
  • saar Gideon Sa'ar
  • levin Yariv Levin
  • yossi_cohen Yossi Cohen
  • avigdor_lieberman Avigdor Lieberman
  • smotrich Bezalel Smotrich
  • netanyahu Benjamin Netanyahu
  • other Other
  • bennett Naftali Bennett
  • katz Israel Katz
  • naftali-bennett Naftali Bennett
  • lapid Yair Lapid
  • gantz Benny Gantz
  • golan Yair Golan
  • gvir Itamar Ben Gvir