Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №027 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

Geopolitics

2027 French Presidential Election Winner

2027_french_presidential_election_winner resolves 2027-04-30

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
36
Linked markets
61 · 2 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #900: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on the same election with identical resolution dates. Candidates are mutually exclusive outcomes of a single event. Slot 'other' for any winner not listed. · cluster=3

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
Gabriel Attal yes 0.038 $2.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.036 $1.14M $90.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Gabriel Attal no 0.962 $2.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.964 $1.14M $90.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
Clémentine Autain Yes 0.0075 $2.45M $221.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Clémentine Autain No 0.993 $2.45M $221.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Jordan Bardella yes 0.250 $29.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.225 $828.9k $84.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jordan Bardella no 0.750 $29.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.775 $828.9k $84.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
Michel Barnier yes 0.0055 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0045 $2.42M $183.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Michel Barnier no 0.995 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.42M $183.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Xavier Bertrand yes 0.0055 $3 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $1.82M $178.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Xavier Bertrand no 0.995 $3 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $1.82M $178.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
Manuel Bompard yes 0.0055 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $2.10M $161.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Manuel Bompard no 0.995 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $2.10M $161.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
Élisabeth Borne yes 0.0055 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $2.60M $203.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Élisabeth Borne no 0.995 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $2.60M $203.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
Yaël Braun-Pivet yes 0.020 $24 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0045 $2.18M $233.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Yaël Braun-Pivet no 0.980 $24 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.18M $233.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Jean Castex yes 0.010 $218 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.015 $677.4k $77.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jean Castex no 0.990 $218 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.985 $677.4k $77.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
Bernard Cazeneuve yes 0.010 $59 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $1.19M $87.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Bernard Cazeneuve no 0.990 $59 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.989 $1.19M $87.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Gérald Darmanin yes 0.010 $95 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $610.3k $104.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Gérald Darmanin no 0.990 $95 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $610.3k $104.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
Carole Delga yes 0.0055 $8 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $2.15M $197.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Carole Delga no 0.995 $8 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $2.15M $197.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Dominique yes 0.044 $6.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.053 $1.13M $73.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Dominique no 0.956 $6.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.947 $1.13M $73.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Yes 0.0065 $2.49M $175.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nicolas Dupont-Aignan No 0.994 $2.49M $175.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Olivier Faure yes 0.026 $101 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $1.72M $203.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Olivier Faure no 0.975 $101 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $1.72M $203.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
François Asselineau Yes 0.0065 $2.88M $176.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT François Asselineau No 0.994 $2.88M $176.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
François Bayrou yes 0.0095 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0045 $2.76M $199.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT François Bayrou no 0.991 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $2.76M $199.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
François Hollande Yes 0.049 $927.9k $46.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT François Hollande No 0.951 $927.9k $46.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Raphaël Glucksmann Yes 0.021 $732.0k $61.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Raphaël Glucksmann No 0.979 $732.0k $61.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
Clémence Guetté Yes 0.0075 $2.21M $205.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Clémence Guetté No 0.993 $2.21M $205.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Sarah Knafo yes 0.029 $863 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.021 $1.16M $92.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Sarah Knafo no 0.972 $863 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.979 $1.16M $92.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Sébastien Lecornu yes 0.041 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.013 $827.7k $46.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Sébastien Lecornu no 0.959 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.988 $827.7k $46.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
David Lisnard yes 0.025 $3.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.036 $1.01M $70.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT David Lisnard no 0.976 $3.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.964 $1.01M $70.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
Jean-Luc Mélenchon yes 0.100 $5.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.085 $429.3k $81.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jean-Luc Mélenchon no 0.900 $5.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.915 $429.3k $81.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Mathilde Panot yes 0.0055 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0055 $2.46M $183.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Mathilde Panot no 0.995 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.995 $2.46M $183.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Valérie Pécresse yes 0.0055 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $2.07M $177.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Valérie Pécresse no 0.995 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $2.07M $177.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
Marine Le Pen yes 0.064 $23.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.055 $447.5k $71.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Marine Le Pen no 0.936 $23.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.945 $447.5k $71.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Édouard Philippe yes 0.220 $15.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.215 $633.1k $81.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Édouard Philippe no 0.780 $15.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.785 $633.1k $81.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Bruno Retailleau yes 0.026 $2.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.036 $1.29M $92.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Bruno Retailleau no 0.974 $2.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.964 $1.29M $92.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Fabien Roussel Yes 0.0085 $1.86M $203.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Fabien Roussel No 0.992 $1.86M $203.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ségolène Royal Yes 0.0055 $2.30M $144.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ségolène Royal No 0.995 $2.30M $144.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
François Ruffin yes 0.019 $1.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $884.8k $113.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT François Ruffin no 0.981 $1.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $884.8k $113.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Marine Tondelier Yes 0.0045 $1.27M $159.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Marine Tondelier No 0.996 $1.27M $159.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Laurent Wauquiez yes 0.0055 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $1.51M $204.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Laurent Wauquiez no 0.995 $1 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $1.51M $204.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Éric Zemmour yes 0.0065 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $1.25M $68.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Éric Zemmour no 0.994 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $1.25M $68.4k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • Sébastien Lecornu +74bps
    polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 285 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 17m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 17m ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  2. 29m ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  3. 47m ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  4. 59m ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  5. 1h ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  6. 2h ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  7. 2h ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps
  8. 2h ago Sébastien Lecornu polymarket YES 0.013 · kalshi NO 0.959 mid-based +74bps

Showing most recent 16 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Canonical outcomes

  • francois_asselineau François Asselineau
  • francois_bayrou François Bayrou
  • francois_hollande François Hollande
  • other Other candidate
  • borne Élisabeth Borne
  • autain Clémentine Autain
  • dupont-aignan Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
  • panot Mathilde Panot
  • barnier Michel Barnier
  • royal Ségolène Royal
  • braun-pivet Yaël Braun-Pivet
  • delga Carole Delga
  • pecresse Valérie Pécresse
  • bompard Manuel Bompard
  • guette Clémence Guetté
  • roussel Fabien Roussel
  • bertrand Xavier Bertrand
  • faure Olivier Faure
  • retailleau Bruno Retailleau
  • zemmour Éric Zemmour
  • wauquiez Laurent Wauquiez
  • tondelier Marine Tondelier
  • cazeneuve Bernard Cazeneuve
  • knafo Sarah Knafo
  • dominique Dominique
  • attal Gabriel Attal
  • lisnard David Lisnard
  • lecornu Sébastien Lecornu
  • bardella Jordan Bardella
  • ruffin François Ruffin
  • glucksmann Raphaël Glucksmann
  • castex Jean Castex
  • darmanin Gérald Darmanin
  • philippe Édouard Philippe
  • pen Marine Le Pen
  • melenchon Jean-Luc Mélenchon