Event №018 · Last revised 2026-04-30
Open

Geopolitics

2027 French Presidential Election Winner

2027_french_presidential_election_winner resolves 2027-04-30

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
37
Linked markets
47 · 2 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Gabriel Attal Yes 0.034 $1.65M $151.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Gabriel Attal No 0.967 $1.65M $151.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Clémentine Autain Yes 0.0065 $4.05M $414.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Clémentine Autain No 0.994 $4.05M $414.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Jordan Bardella Yes 0.255 $1.13M $177.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Jordan Bardella No 0.745 $1.13M $177.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
Michel Barnier yes 0.0050 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $4.73M $386.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Michel Barnier no 0.995 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $4.73M $386.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Xavier Bertrand Yes 0.0065 $4.62M $409.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Xavier Bertrand No 0.994 $4.62M $409.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Manuel Bompard yes 0.0050 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $4.19M $369.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Manuel Bompard no 0.995 $7 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $4.19M $369.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Élisabeth Borne Yes 0.0065 $4.78M $418.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Élisabeth Borne No 0.994 $4.78M $418.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Yaël Braun-Pivet Yes 0.0065 $5.00M $381.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Yaël Braun-Pivet No 0.994 $5.00M $381.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Jean Castex yes 0.0080 $397 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $951.5k $175.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jean Castex no 0.992 $397 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $951.5k $175.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Bernard Cazeneuve yes 0.0060 $59 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $1.66M $191.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Bernard Cazeneuve no 0.994 $59 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $1.66M $191.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Gérald Darmanin Yes 0.0075 $1.49M $286.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Gérald Darmanin No 0.993 $1.49M $286.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
Carole Delga Yes 0.0065 $4.00M $430.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Carole Delga No 0.994 $4.00M $430.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Dominique Yes 0.039 $1.41M $120.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Dominique No 0.961 $1.41M $120.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan Yes 0.0065 $3.91M $427.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nicolas Dupont-Aignan No 0.994 $3.91M $427.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Olivier Faure yes 0.0060 $101 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $4.51M $399.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Olivier Faure no 0.994 $101 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $4.51M $399.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
François Bayrou yes 0.0085 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT François Bayrou no 0.992 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
François Hollande Yes 0.024 $1.20M $132.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT François Hollande No 0.977 $1.20M $132.2k polymarket
Polymarket us
Raphaël Glucksmann Yes 0.020 $1.16M $147.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Raphaël Glucksmann No 0.980 $1.16M $147.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Clémence Guetté Yes 0.0055 $3.60M $381.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Clémence Guetté No 0.995 $3.60M $381.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
Sarah Knafo yes 0.026 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $1.46M $199.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Sarah Knafo no 0.974 $1.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $1.46M $199.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
Sébastien Lecornu Yes 0.0065 $1.09M $187.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Sébastien Lecornu No 0.994 $1.09M $187.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
David Lisnard yes 0.023 $14.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.021 $1.37M $137.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT David Lisnard no 0.977 $14.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.979 $1.37M $137.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Bruno Le Maire yes 0.0050 $2 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Bruno Le Maire no 0.995 $2 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Jean-Luc Mélenchon yes 0.091 $8.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.115 $732.8k $176.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Jean-Luc Mélenchon no 0.909 $8.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.885 $732.8k $176.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
Mathilde Panot yes 0.0050 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $5.53M $410.7k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Mathilde Panot no 0.995 $2 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $5.53M $410.7k polymarket
Polymarket us
Valérie Pécresse Yes 0.0065 $3.56M $409.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Valérie Pécresse No 0.994 $3.56M $409.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Marine Le Pen Yes 0.075 $809.3k $112.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Marine Le Pen No 0.925 $809.3k $112.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Édouard Philippe yes 0.200 $17.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.195 $940.8k $135.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Édouard Philippe no 0.800 $17.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.805 $940.8k $135.6k polymarket
Polymarket us
Bruno Retailleau Yes 0.018 $1.58M $219.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Bruno Retailleau No 0.983 $1.58M $219.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
Fabien Roussel Yes 0.0065 $3.41M $401.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Fabien Roussel No 0.994 $3.41M $401.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ségolène Royal Yes 0.0065 $4.50M $347.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ségolène Royal No 0.994 $4.50M $347.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
François Ruffin yes 0.018 $2.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $2.67M $292.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT François Ruffin no 0.982 $2.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $2.67M $292.5k polymarket
Polymarket us
Marine Tondelier Yes 0.0065 $3.10M $295.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Marine Tondelier No 0.994 $3.10M $295.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
Laurent Wauquiez Yes 0.0075 $3.17M $368.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Laurent Wauquiez No 0.993 $3.17M $368.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
Éric Zemmour yes 0.013 $1.3k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $1.68M $184.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Éric Zemmour no 0.988 $1.3k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $1.68M $184.5k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: 2027 French presidential election ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • francois_asselineau François Asselineau
  • francois_bayrou François Bayrou
  • francois_hollande François Hollande
  • other Other candidate
  • borne Élisabeth Borne
  • autain Clémentine Autain
  • dupont-aignan Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
  • panot Mathilde Panot
  • barnier Michel Barnier
  • royal Ségolène Royal
  • braun-pivet Yaël Braun-Pivet
  • delga Carole Delga
  • pecresse Valérie Pécresse
  • bompard Manuel Bompard
  • guette Clémence Guetté
  • roussel Fabien Roussel
  • bertrand Xavier Bertrand
  • faure Olivier Faure
  • retailleau Bruno Retailleau
  • zemmour Éric Zemmour
  • wauquiez Laurent Wauquiez
  • tondelier Marine Tondelier
  • cazeneuve Bernard Cazeneuve
  • knafo Sarah Knafo
  • dominique Dominique
  • attal Gabriel Attal
  • lisnard David Lisnard
  • lecornu Sébastien Lecornu
  • bardella Jordan Bardella
  • ruffin François Ruffin
  • glucksmann Raphaël Glucksmann
  • castex Jean Castex
  • darmanin Gérald Darmanin
  • philippe Édouard Philippe
  • pen Marine Le Pen
  • melenchon Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • maire Bruno Le Maire