Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №126 · Last revised 2026-04-30
Open

Geopolitics

Next Prime Minister of Israel

next_israel_prime_minister resolves 2045-01-01

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
19
Linked markets
16 · 2 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5299: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets probe the same underlying question—next Israeli PM—with two named candidates. Dates diverge (2026 vs 2045), suggesting uncertainty about timeline; used later date as most conservative. Categorical canonical fits pattern. · cluster=3

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Nir Barkat Yes 0.0025 — $117.4k $38.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Nir Barkat No 0.998 — $117.4k $38.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Itamar Ben-Gvir yes 0.052 — $7.7k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Itamar Ben-Gvir no 0.948 — $7.7k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Yossi Cohen yes 0.0055 — $1.7k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Yossi Cohen no 0.995 — $1.7k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Gadi Eisenkot yes 0.145 — $3.9k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Gadi Eisenkot no 0.855 — $3.9k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Moshe Feiglin Yes 0.0025 — $330.1k $28.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Moshe Feiglin No 0.998 — $330.1k $28.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Yoav Gallant yes 0.015 — $3.3k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Yoav Gallant no 0.985 — $3.3k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Benny Gantz yes 0.012 — $1.9k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Benny Gantz no 0.988 — $1.9k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Yair Golan yes 0.0060 — $2.3k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Yair Golan no 0.994 — $2.3k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yoaz Hendel Yes 0.0015 — $163.1k $43.8k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Yoaz Hendel No 0.999 — $163.1k $43.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Yair Lapid yes 0.027 — $4.6k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Yair Lapid no 0.973 — $4.6k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Yariv Levin yes 0.035 — $6.8k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Yariv Levin no 0.965 — $6.8k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Avigdor Lieberman yes 0.0075 — $1.3k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Avigdor Lieberman no 0.993 — $1.3k —1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Amir Ohana Yes 0.0025 — $47.5k $27.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Amir Ohana No 0.998 — $47.5k $27.3k polymarket
Polymarket us
Gideon Sa’ar Yes 0.0035 — $485.7k $33.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Gideon Sa’ar No 0.997 — $485.7k $33.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Ayelet Shaked Yes 0.0025 — $138.9k $41.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Ayelet Shaked No 0.998 — $138.9k $41.1k polymarket
Kalshi us
Bezalel Smotrich yes 0.013 — $3.0k —1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Bezalel Smotrich no 0.987 — $3.0k —1 kalshi

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • naftali_bennett Naftali Bennett
  • israel_katz Israel Katz
  • other Other
  • gallant Yoav Gallant
  • levin Yariv Levin
  • gantz Benny Gantz
  • lapid Yair Lapid
  • eisenkot Gadi Eisenkot
  • cohen Yossi Cohen
  • lieberman Avigdor Lieberman
  • golan Yair Golan
  • ben-gvir Itamar Ben-Gvir
  • smotrich Bezalel Smotrich
  • saar Gideon Sa’ar
  • feiglin Moshe Feiglin
  • shaked Ayelet Shaked
  • hendel Yoaz Hendel
  • barkat Nir Barkat
  • ohana Amir Ohana