PredictIt

Academic exchange (Victoria University of Wellington, NZ) under CFTC No-Action Letter 14-130 (2014); status contested in litigation since 2022

Country: New Zealand
Taker fee: 1000 bps
Typical gas: —

§ Notes

Undocumented public REST feed at /api/marketdata/all/ has been used by RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and academic researchers since 2014. Returns {markets: [{contracts: [...]}]} where each contract is a binary YES/NO outcome — Storm explodes contracts into individual binary markets. Per-trader contract caps ~$850, ~5000 traders/market = thin actionability for arb but useful long-tail US politics signal. Prices are dollars 0.01-0.99 (same probability space Storm uses). PredictIt's effective trading fees are large (5% withdrawal + 10% on profits) — the 10% taker_fee_bps approximation here treats PredictIt's profit fee as a coarse hurdle for spread engine; per-contract liquidity isn't in the bulk feed and is left null. Regulatory fragility: PredictIt could be ordered offline; ingest failures should not page operator. See docs/predictit-legal/storm-compliance-notes.md.

§ Coverage

Markets ingested: 1347
Active: 820
Delisted: 527
Events linked: 59
Last ingest: 1s ago

§ Top events by volume

§ Schema health

Storm runs a canary against every venue that compares live API responses against the last-known schema shape. Drift, missing fields, and unexpected null-rates raise alarms routed to the operator queue.

§ Recent markets

How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 241 or more predictit_contract_35080 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 221 to 240 predictit_contract_35079 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 201 to 220 predictit_contract_35076 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 181 to 200 predictit_contract_35078 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 161 to 180 predictit_contract_35077 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 141 to 160 predictit_contract_35072 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 121 to 140 predictit_contract_35073 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 101 to 120 predictit_contract_35074 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
How many "truths" will Trump post from June 18 through June 24? — 100 or fewer predictit_contract_35075 · $0 vol · first seen 12h ago
What will President Trump's RCP job approval rating be on June 24? — 42.0% or higher predictit_contract_35065 · $0 vol · first seen 2d ago

§ Ingest cadence and policy

Storm ingests from this venue on the standard pull cadence (default hourly for the daemon; on-demand via storm markets pull predictit). The ingester stores the raw payload alongside the normalized fields, so schema changes can be replayed without re-fetching.

Policy note: Undocumented public REST feed at /api/marketdata/all/ has been used by RealClearPolitics, FiveThirtyEight, and academic researchers since 2014. Returns {markets: [{contracts: [...]}]} where each contract is a binary YES/NO outcome — Storm explodes contracts into individual binary markets. Per-trader contract caps ~$850, ~5000 traders/market = thin actionability for arb but useful long-tail US politics signal. Prices are dollars 0.01-0.99 (same probability space Storm uses). PredictIt's effective trading fees are large (5% withdrawal + 10% on profits) — the 10% taker_fee_bps approximation here treats PredictIt's profit fee as a coarse hurdle for spread engine; per-contract liquidity isn't in the bulk feed and is left null. Regulatory fragility: PredictIt could be ordered offline; ingest failures should not page operator. See docs/predictit-legal/storm-compliance-notes.md.