Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №003 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

US Elections

2028 Republican presidential nominee

2028_republican_nominee resolves 2028-07-15

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
rnc_convention
Canonical outcomes
33
Linked markets
72 · 4 venues

Person formally nominated as the Republican presidential candidate at the 2028 RNC.

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
Greg Abbott yes 0.0035 $482.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0085 $18.54M $963.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Greg Abbott no 0.997 $482.9k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.992 $18.54M $963.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Katie Britt yes 0.0030 $429.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $26.99M $205.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Katie Britt no 0.997 $429.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $26.99M $205.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Tucker Carlson yes 0.073 $2.54M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.056 $10.72M $88.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.065 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Tucker Carlson no 0.926 $2.54M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.945 $10.72M $88.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.935 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Tom Cotton yes 0.0055 $368.8k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Tom Cotton no 0.995 $368.8k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Ted Cruz yes 0.0075 $942.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $15.93M $441.1k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.030 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Ted Cruz no 0.993 $942.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $15.93M $441.1k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.970 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Ron DeSantis yes 0.042 $2.00M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.025 $12.95M $124.0k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.055 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Ron DeSantis no 0.959 $2.00M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.976 $12.95M $124.0k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.945 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Byron Donalds yes 0.0035 $721.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $39.02M $333.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Byron Donalds no 0.997 $721.1k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $39.02M $333.8k polymarket
Kalshi us
Eric Trump yes 0.0025 $681.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0085 $6.42M $821.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Eric Trump no 0.998 $681.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.992 $6.42M $821.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Tulsi Gabbard yes 0.0055 $1.22M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $11.67M $1.09M polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.025 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Tulsi Gabbard no 0.995 $1.22M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.989 $11.67M $1.09M polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.975 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Matt Gaetz yes 0.0010 $713.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $17.63M $238.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Matt Gaetz no 0.999 $713.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $17.63M $238.6k polymarket
Kalshi us
Marjorie Taylor Greene yes 0.011 $2.12M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $5.59M $129.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.025 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Marjorie Taylor Greene no 0.989 $2.12M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $5.59M $129.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.975 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Nikki Haley yes 0.0045 $1.58M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $8.41M $394.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Nikki Haley no 0.996 $1.58M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $8.41M $394.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Josh Hawley yes 0.0085 $1.13M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0085 $18.34M $223.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Josh Hawley no 0.992 $1.13M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.992 $18.34M $223.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Pete Hegseth yes 0.0045 $618.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $5.36M $651.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Pete Hegseth no 0.996 $618.5k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $5.36M $651.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Ivanka Trump yes 0.011 $1.23M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $6.55M $146.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Ivanka Trump no 0.989 $1.23M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $6.55M $146.2k polymarket
Kalshi us
Brian Kemp yes 0.0080 $996.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0085 $15.85M $417.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.025 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Brian Kemp no 0.992 $996.2k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.992 $15.85M $417.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.975 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
Joe Kent Yes 0.0065 $4.99M $537.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Joe Kent No 0.994 $4.99M $537.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
Lara Trump yes 0.010 $3.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Lara Trump no 0.990 $3.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Thomas Massie yes 0.013 $1.63M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.015 $3.52M $200.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Thomas Massie no 0.987 $1.63M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.985 $3.52M $200.5k polymarket
Kalshi us
Mike Pence yes 0.0015 $483.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Mike Pence no 0.999 $483.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Kristi Noem yes 0.0015 $554.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0065 $32.29M $519.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.010 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Kristi Noem no 0.999 $554.7k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.994 $32.29M $519.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.990 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Rand Paul yes 0.0085 $846.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.011 $17.50M $445.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.015 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Rand Paul no 0.992 $846.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.990 $17.50M $445.6k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.985 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Vivek Ramaswamy yes 0.0045 $1.04M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.017 $14.50M $122.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Vivek Ramaswamy no 0.996 $1.04M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.984 $14.50M $122.3k polymarket
Kalshi us
Robert Kennedy Jr yes 0.0035 $964.3k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Robert Kennedy Jr no 0.997 $964.3k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Marco Rubio yes 0.245 $3.43M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.208 $8.36M $171.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.235 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Marco Rubio no 0.755 $3.43M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.791 $8.36M $171.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.765 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Sarah Huckabee Sanders yes 0.0025 $551.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $30.15M $1.15M polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Sarah Huckabee Sanders no 0.998 $551.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $30.15M $1.15M polymarket
Kalshi us
Elise Stefanik yes 0.0015 $252.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0095 $24.21M $725.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Elise Stefanik no 0.999 $252.0k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.991 $24.21M $725.4k polymarket
Kalshi us
John Thune yes 0.0025 $345.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0075 $32.26M $574.9k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT John Thune no 0.998 $345.6k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.993 $32.26M $574.9k polymarket
Polymarket us
Donald Trump Yes 0.021 $7.61M $162.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.045 1 1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Donald Trump No 0.980 $7.61M $162.7k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.955 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Donald Trump Jr. yes 0.036 $1.74M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.026 $7.54M $95.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Donald Trump Jr. no 0.965 $1.74M 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.974 $7.54M $95.5k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.965 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
JD Vance yes 0.385 $2.54M 1 kalshi
Manifold Markets us
yes 0.427 $664 $100 manifold
PredictIt us
yes 0.385 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT JD Vance no 0.615 $2.54M 1 kalshi
Manifold Markets us
no 0.573 $664 $100 manifold
PredictIt us
no 0.615 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
Glenn Youngkin yes 0.017 $795.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.015 $6.59M $168.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
yes 0.035 1 1 predictit
Kalshi us
NOT Glenn Youngkin no 0.983 $795.4k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.986 $6.59M $168.8k polymarket
PredictIt us
no 0.965 1 1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • Marco Rubio +154bps
    polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 365 bps gross · 211 bps fees · mid-based · 8m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 8m ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  2. 26m ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  3. 38m ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  4. 56m ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  5. 1h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  6. 1h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  7. 2h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  8. 2h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  9. 2h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  10. 2h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  11. 3h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  12. 3h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.208 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +154bps
  13. 3h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  14. 3h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  15. 4h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  16. 4h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  17. 4h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  18. 4h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  19. 5h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  20. 5h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  21. 5h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  22. 6h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  23. 6h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  24. 6h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.212 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +114bps
  25. 6h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.212 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +114bps
  26. 6h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  27. 7h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  28. 7h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  29. 7h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.211 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +124bps
  30. 7h ago Marco Rubio polymarket YES 0.213 · kalshi NO 0.755 mid-based +104bps

Showing most recent 60 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Canonical outcomes

  • vance JD Vance J.D. Vance
  • desantis Ron DeSantis
  • haley Nikki Haley
  • ramaswamy Vivek Ramaswamy
  • youngkin Glenn Youngkin
  • noem Kristi Noem
  • trump_jr Donald Trump Jr. Don JrTrump Jr
  • other Other / No candidate named
  • donalds Byron Donalds
  • thune John Thune
  • sanders Sarah Huckabee Sanders
  • britt Katie Britt
  • stefanik Elise Stefanik
  • abbott Greg Abbott
  • hawley Josh Hawley
  • gaetz Matt Gaetz
  • paul Rand Paul
  • cruz Ted Cruz
  • kemp Brian Kemp
  • gabbard Tulsi Gabbard
  • carlson Tucker Carlson
  • rubio Marco Rubio
  • trump Donald Trump
  • ivanka-trump Ivanka Trump
  • eric-trump Eric Trump
  • greene Marjorie Taylor Greene
  • hegseth Pete Hegseth
  • kent Joe Kent
  • massie Thomas Massie
  • mike-pence Mike Pence
  • cotton Tom Cotton
  • lara-trump Lara Trump
  • robert-kennedy Robert Kennedy Jr