US Elections
Republican Control of US Senate 2026
2026_senate_republican_control resolves 2026-11-03
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #2990: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets converge on identical event: Republican Senate control after 2026 midterms. Minimal variance in resolution dates (Nov 3 vs Dec 1); Nov 3 is election day and most representative. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
no No | 0.505 | — | $1.01M | $91.1k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.490 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
yes Yes | 0.495 | — | $1.01M | $91.1k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.510 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
proposal #2997: title_jaccard=0.50 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=rep,senate
- External ID
- 562794
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $1.01M
- Status
- Active
Which party will control the Senate after the 2026 election? — Republican
proposal #3815: title_jaccard=0.57 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=rep,senate
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31948
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active