Geopolitics
Who Will Be Hungary's Next Prime Minister?
hungary_next_prime_minister_2026 resolves 2026-04-12
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 4
- Linked markets
- 3 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #1562: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on identical resolution date asking about the same event (Hungary's next PM) with distinct named candidates. Categorical structure with 'other' captures open-ended possibility. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
István Kapitány Yes | 0.0005 | — | $16.63M | $184.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT István Kapitány No | 1.000 | — | $16.63M | $184.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
László Toroczkai Yes | 0.0005 | — | $13.86M | $922.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT László Toroczkai No | 1.000 | — | $13.86M | $922.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Péter Magyar Yes | 0.995 | — | $23.05M | $238.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Péter Magyar No | 0.0055 | — | $23.05M | $238.4k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- peter_magyar Péter Magyar
- istvan_kapitany István Kapitány
- laszlo_toroczkai László Toroczkai
- other Other
§ Linked markets
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
proposal #1623: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=peter_magyar
- External ID
- 567561
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $23.05M
- Status
- Active
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?
proposal #1625: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=laszlo_toroczkai
- External ID
- 567563
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $13.86M
- Status
- Active
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?
proposal #1624: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=istvan_kapitany
- External ID
- 567564
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $16.63M
- Status
- Active