Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №044 · Last revised 2026-04-27
Expired

Geopolitics

Who Will Be Hungary's Next Prime Minister?

hungary_next_prime_minister_2026 resolves 2026-04-12

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
4
Linked markets
3 · 1 venue

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #1562: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on identical resolution date asking about the same event (Hungary's next PM) with distinct named candidates. Categorical structure with 'other' captures open-ended possibility. · cluster=3

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
István Kapitány Yes 0.0005 $16.63M $184.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT István Kapitány No 1.000 $16.63M $184.0k polymarket
Polymarket us
László Toroczkai Yes 0.0005 $13.86M $922.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT László Toroczkai No 1.000 $13.86M $922.1k polymarket
Polymarket us
Péter Magyar Yes 0.995 $23.05M $238.4k polymarket
Polymarket us
NOT Péter Magyar No 0.0055 $23.05M $238.4k polymarket

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • peter_magyar Péter Magyar
  • istvan_kapitany István Kapitány
  • laszlo_toroczkai László Toroczkai
  • other Other