Geopolitics
2026 UK Local Elections Results
2026_uk_local_elections resolves 2026-05-07
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 11
- Linked markets
- 5 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #7002: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=8 · venues=1 · candidates=8 · joke_filtered=0 · signature=[2026,uk,local,elections]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Green Party Yes | 0.028 | — | $24.8k | $35.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Green Party No | 0.973 | — | $24.8k | $35.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Local Elections Yes | 0.587 | — | $81.0k | $64.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Local Elections No | 0.413 | — | $81.0k | $64.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Green Party Yes | 0.885 | — | $50.2k | $17.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Green Party No | 0.115 | — | $50.2k | $17.0k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- local_elections Local Elections
- croydon_mayoral Croydon Mayoral
- hackney_mayoral Hackney Mayoral
- lewisham_mayoral Lewisham Mayoral
- local_elections_winning_party Local Elections Winning Party
- newham_mayoral Newham Mayoral
- tower_hamlets_mayoral Tower Hamlets Mayoral
- watford_mayoral Watford Mayoral
- other Other
- party Green Party
- green-party Green Party
§ Linked markets
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
proposal #7710: expansion: detected entity "Green Party" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1864306
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $50.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
proposal #7778: title_jaccard=0.36 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=local_elections
- External ID
- 1849800
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $43.9k
- Status
- Active
Will the Green Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
proposal #8058: expansion: detected entity "Green Party" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1849801
- Matched
- 4h ago
- Volume
- $24.8k
- Status
- Active
Will the Labour Party win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
proposal #8147: title_jaccard=0.25 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=local_elections
- External ID
- 1849797
- Matched
- 3h ago
- Volume
- $21.4k
- Status
- Active
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
proposal #8482: title_jaccard=0.23 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=local_elections
- External ID
- 1964848
- Matched
- 3h ago
- Volume
- $15.7k
- Status
- Active