Geopolitics
2026 Brazilian Presidential Election Winner
2026_brazilian_presidential_election_winner resolves 2026-10-04
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 4
- Linked markets
- 4 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4041: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets all address the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. Markets 2–3 are candidate-specific sub-outcomes of a categorical event; Market 1 is binary on one candidate. Unified as categorical with open field. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Flávio Bolsonaro Yes | 0.431 | — | $4.60M | $130.3k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.555 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Flávio Bolsonaro No | 0.569 | — | $4.60M | $130.3k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.445 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Romeu Zema Yes | 0.054 | — | $1.53M | $111.9k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.015 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Romeu Zema No | 0.946 | — | $1.53M | $111.9k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.985 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- michelle_bolsonaro Michelle Bolsonaro
- flavio_bolsonaro Flávio Bolsonaro
- romeu_zema Romeu Zema
- other Other
§ Linked markets
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #4164: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=romeu_zema
- External ID
- 601828
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $1.53M
- Status
- Active
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
proposal #4156: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=flavio_bolsonaro
- External ID
- 601826
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.60M
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Romeu Zema
proposal #4100: title_jaccard=0.67 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=romeu_zema
- External ID
- predictit_contract_33625
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? — Flávio Bolsonaro
proposal #4099: title_jaccard=0.57 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=flavio_bolsonaro
- External ID
- predictit_contract_33624
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active