Geopolitics
Next Prime Minister of Israel
next_israeli_prime_minister resolves 2045-01-01
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 7
- Linked markets
- 4 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5301: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets probe the same underlying question: who will be Israel's next PM. Markets 1 and 2 are duplicates (Lapid); market 3 introduces an alternative candidate. Treated as categorical canonical. Confidence reduced due to date discrepancy (2026 vs 2045) and unclear what 'next' means temporally. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Yossi Cohen Yes | 0.0065 | — | $436.0k | $21.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Yossi Cohen No | 0.994 | — | $436.0k | $21.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Israel Katz Yes | 0.0055 | — | $63.3k | $27.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Israel Katz No | 0.995 | — | $63.3k | $27.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Yariv Levin Yes | 0.013 | — | $201.3k | $25.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Yariv Levin No | 0.987 | — | $201.3k | $25.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Avigdor Lieberman Yes | 0.017 | — | $430.7k | $24.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Avigdor Lieberman No | 0.983 | — | $430.7k | $24.2k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- lapid Yair Lapid
- golan Yair Golan
- other Other
- cohen Yossi Cohen
- levin Yariv Levin
- lieberman Avigdor Lieberman
- katz Israel Katz
§ Linked markets
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
proposal #6087: expansion: detected entity "Yossi Cohen" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 682711
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $436.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
proposal #6090: expansion: detected entity "Yariv Levin" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 682715
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $201.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
proposal #6101: expansion: detected entity "Avigdor Lieberman" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 682710
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $430.7k
- Status
- Active
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
proposal #8462: expansion: detected entity "Israel Katz" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 682719
- Matched
- 3h ago
- Volume
- $63.3k
- Status
- Active