Open
Geopolitics
Chinese military action against Taiwan in 2026
china_taiwan_military_action_2026 resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- credible_press_reporting
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 1 · 1 venue
Does the PRC conduct a military action against Taiwanese territory — beyond ADIZ incursions — during 2026?
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
no No | 0.895 | — | $1.73M | $37.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
yes Yes | 0.105 | — | $1.73M | $37.3k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
proposal #187: title_jaccard=0.22 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics
- External ID
- 677407
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $1.73M
- Status
- Active