Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №009 · Last revised 2026-05-03
Open

Geopolitics

Chinese military action against Taiwan in 2026

china_taiwan_military_action_2026 resolves 2026-12-31

Category
Geopolitics
Resolution basis
credible_press_reporting
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
2 · 2 venues

Does the PRC conduct a military action against Taiwanese territory — beyond ADIZ incursions — during 2026?

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 8.2¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Polymarket 50% · price 9¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Limitless Exchange 50% · price 7¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Limitless Exchange
no No 0.926 — $7.8k —1 limitless
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.910 — $2.15M $40.5k polymarket
Limitless Exchange
yes Yes 0.073 — $7.8k —1 limitless
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.090 — $2.15M $40.5k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Chinese Taiwan ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no