Geopolitics
2026 Russian Parliamentary Election Most Seats Winner
2026_russian_parliamentary_election_most_seats resolves 2026-09-30
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 6
- Linked markets
- 6 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4761: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same underlying Russian parliamentary election (2026), same resolution date, same question structure ('gain most seats'). Cleanly maps to categorical race. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Civic Platform Yes | 0.0015 | — | $85.1k | $48.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Civic Platform No | 0.999 | — | $85.1k | $48.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Yes | 0.052 | — | $2.26M | $84.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Liberal Democratic Party of Russia No | 0.948 | — | $2.26M | $84.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
New People Yes | 0.032 | — | $64.5k | $49.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT New People No | 0.969 | — | $64.5k | $49.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Rodina Yes | 0.0026 | — | $773.6k | $143.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Rodina No | 0.997 | — | $773.6k | $143.7k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- ldpr Liberal Democratic Party of Russia
- rodina Rodina
- srzp A Just Russia – For Truth
- other Other
- civic-platform Civic Platform
- new-people New People
§ Linked markets
Will Rodina win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #5160: title_jaccard=0.63 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=rodina
- External ID
- 1129903
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $202.3k
- Status
- Active
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #5149: title_jaccard=0.38 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · canonical_outcome=ldpr
- External ID
- 1130015
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $2.19M
- Status
- Active
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #5150: title_jaccard=0.56 · date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=rodina
- External ID
- 1130017
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $571.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #7539: expansion: detected entity "Civic Platform" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1129905
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $85.1k
- Status
- Active
Will New People (NL) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #7625: expansion: detected entity "New People" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1129902
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $64.5k
- Status
- Active
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
proposal #7601: title_jaccard=0.42 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · canonical_outcome=ldpr
- External ID
- 1129900
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $71.1k
- Status
- Active