Open
Geopolitics
US-Iran Nuclear Deal Signed in 2026
us_iran_nuclear_deal_2026 resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 1 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #2585: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets track the same event: a US-Iran nuclear deal in 2026. Different resolution dates (April, June, Dec) reflect progressive checkpoints, but all measure whether deal is signed by year-end. Latest date chosen. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
no No | 0.475 | — | $836.7k | $82.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
yes Yes | 0.525 | — | $836.7k | $82.6k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
proposal #2926: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics
- External ID
- 665325
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $836.7k
- Status
- Active