Open
Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship?
gukesh_2026_world_chess_championship resolves 2027-01-02
- Category
- —
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #2424: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Two markets asking identical question about Gukesh winning 2026 World Chess Championship. Minor name variation (Gukesh vs Gukesh D) and resolution date offset (<3 days) are inconsequential. · cluster=2
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.649 | — | $133 | $30 | manifold | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.351 | — | $133 | $30 | manifold |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will Gukesh D win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
proposal #2439: title_jaccard=1.00 · date_prox=0.99 · year_overlap
- External ID
- QstSQqsuOu
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $30
- Status
- Active
Will Gukesh win the 2026 World Chess Championship?
proposal #2438: title_jaccard=1.00 · date_prox=0.97 · year_overlap
- External ID
- CqssL2NltN
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $103
- Status
- Active