Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №055 · Last revised 2026-04-27
Open

Will Gukesh Win 2026 World Chess Championship?

gukesh_2026_world_chess_championship resolves 2027-01-02

Category
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Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
3 · 2 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 34.5¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Manifold Markets 50% · price 35¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Polymarket 50% · price 34¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Manifold Markets us
no no 0.645 — $142 $30 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.665 — $10.4k $15.9k polymarket
Manifold Markets us
yes yes 0.355 — $142 $30 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.335 — $10.4k $15.9k polymarket

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: World Chess Championship ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no