US Elections
2028 US Presidential Election Winner
2028_us_presidential_election_winner resolves 2028-11-07
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 25
- Linked markets
- 34 · 3 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5282: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · [merged 2 clusters] Three markets on the same 2028 US Presidential Election. Market 1 & 3 are candidate-agnostic race questions; Market 2 is Andy Beshear-specific. Treating as categorical with Beshear as named outcome; 'other' covers unobserved candidates. Confidence reduced due to incomplete candidate list across markets. | merged: Three markets on the same 2028 US Presidential race. Market 1 and 3 are clearly the race outcome; Market 2 references 'Donald Trump' specifically. Slight ambiguity on whether Trump Jr. · cluster=6
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Greg Abbott Yes | 0.0095 | — | $32.68M | $1.73M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Greg Abbott No | 0.991 | — | $32.68M | $1.73M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Andy Beshear Yes | 0.013 | — | $17.97M | $169.1k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.035 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Andy Beshear No | 0.987 | — | $17.97M | $169.1k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.965 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Pete Buttigieg Yes | 0.022 | — | $4.23M | $217.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.045 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Pete Buttigieg No | 0.978 | — | $4.23M | $217.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.955 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Tucker Carlson Yes | 0.031 | — | $10.80M | $105.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Tucker Carlson No | 0.969 | — | $10.80M | $105.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Ron DeSantis Yes | 0.013 | — | $10.14M | $227.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Ron DeSantis No | 0.987 | — | $10.14M | $227.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Tulsi Gabbard Yes | 0.0075 | — | $29.53M | $652.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.015 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Tulsi Gabbard No | 0.993 | — | $29.53M | $652.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.985 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Nikki Haley Yes | 0.0085 | — | $23.47M | $1.35M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Nikki Haley No | 0.992 | — | $23.47M | $1.35M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Pete Hegseth Yes | 0.0065 | — | $5.41M | $1.50M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Pete Hegseth No | 0.994 | — | $5.41M | $1.50M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Ro Khanna Yes | 0.0085 | — | $7.99M | $744.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Ro Khanna No | 0.992 | — | $7.99M | $744.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Thomas Massie Yes | 0.0095 | — | $4.27M | $923.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Thomas Massie No | 0.991 | — | $4.27M | $923.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Wes Moore Yes | 0.0075 | — | $8.46M | $607.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Wes Moore No | 0.993 | — | $8.46M | $607.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gavin Newsom Yes | 0.176 | — | $16.15M | $115.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.225 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gavin Newsom No | 0.824 | — | $16.15M | $115.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.775 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Michelle Obama Yes | 0.0095 | — | $14.58M | $1.37M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Michelle Obama No | 0.991 | — | $14.58M | $1.37M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Jon Ossoff Yes | 0.043 | — | $3.89M | $84.4k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.055 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Jon Ossoff No | 0.957 | — | $3.89M | $84.4k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.945 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
JB Pritzker Yes | 0.015 | — | $11.31M | $217.6k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.015 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT JB Pritzker No | 0.986 | — | $11.31M | $217.6k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.985 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Vivek Ramaswamy Yes | 0.0065 | — | $32.31M | $650.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Vivek Ramaswamy No | 0.994 | — | $32.31M | $650.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Marco Rubio Yes | 0.108 | — | $9.49M | $135.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.130 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Marco Rubio No | 0.891 | — | $9.49M | $135.5k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.870 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Josh Shapiro Yes | 0.021 | — | $6.13M | $160.0k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.045 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Josh Shapiro No | 0.979 | — | $6.13M | $160.0k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.955 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Donald Trump Yes | 0.043 | — | $7.59M | $292.4k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.025 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Donald Trump No | 0.958 | — | $7.59M | $292.4k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.975 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
JD Vance yes | 0.202 | — | $5.5k | $1.0k | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.193 | — | $10.77M | $280.2k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.235 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
NOT JD Vance no | 0.798 | — | $5.5k | $1.0k | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.807 | — | $10.77M | $280.2k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.765 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Tim Walz Yes | 0.0065 | — | $40.68M | $1.43M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Tim Walz No | 0.994 | — | $40.68M | $1.43M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gretchen Whitmer Yes | 0.0095 | — | $10.02M | $868.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gretchen Whitmer No | 0.991 | — | $10.02M | $868.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Glenn Youngkin Yes | 0.0085 | — | $23.42M | $844.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Glenn Youngkin No | 0.992 | — | $23.42M | $844.8k | polymarket |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- beshear Andy Beshear
- trump_jr Donald Trump Jr.
- trump Donald Trump
- other Other
- walz Tim Walz
- abbott Greg Abbott
- ramaswamy Vivek Ramaswamy
- gabbard Tulsi Gabbard
- haley Nikki Haley
- youngkin Glenn Youngkin
- newsom Gavin Newsom
- obama Michelle Obama
- pritzker JB Pritzker
- vance JD Vance
- carlson Tucker Carlson
- desantis Ron DeSantis
- whitmer Gretchen Whitmer
- rubio Marco Rubio
- moore Wes Moore
- khanna Ro Khanna
- shapiro Josh Shapiro
- hegseth Pete Hegseth
- buttigieg Pete Buttigieg
- massie Thomas Massie
- ossoff Jon Ossoff
§ Linked markets
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5719: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.96 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=vance
- External ID
- wpdomi6nif
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5424: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=beshear
- External ID
- 561237
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $17.97M
- Status
- Active
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5693: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=trump
- External ID
- 561243
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $7.59M
- Status
- Active
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5431: expansion: detected entity "Tim Walz" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561247
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $40.68M
- Status
- Active
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5433: expansion: detected entity "Greg Abbott" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561249
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $32.68M
- Status
- Active
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5434: expansion: detected entity "Vivek Ramaswamy" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561248
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $32.31M
- Status
- Active
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5436: expansion: detected entity "Tulsi Gabbard" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561242
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $29.53M
- Status
- Active
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5437: expansion: detected entity "Nikki Haley" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561245
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $23.47M
- Status
- Active
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5439: expansion: detected entity "Glenn Youngkin" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561238
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $23.42M
- Status
- Active
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5441: expansion: detected entity "Gavin Newsom" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561230
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $16.15M
- Status
- Active
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5442: expansion: detected entity "Michelle Obama" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561257
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $14.58M
- Status
- Active
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5444: expansion: detected entity "JB Pritzker" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561241
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $11.31M
- Status
- Active
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5445: expansion: detected entity "JD Vance" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561229
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $10.77M
- Status
- Active
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5446: expansion: detected entity "Tucker Carlson" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561253
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $10.80M
- Status
- Active
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5447: expansion: detected entity "Ron DeSantis" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561246
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $10.14M
- Status
- Active
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5448: expansion: detected entity "Gretchen Whitmer" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561236
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $10.02M
- Status
- Active
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5449: expansion: detected entity "Marco Rubio" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561234
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $9.49M
- Status
- Active
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5451: expansion: detected entity "Wes Moore" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561235
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $8.46M
- Status
- Active
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5452: expansion: detected entity "Ro Khanna" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561259
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $7.99M
- Status
- Active
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5454: expansion: detected entity "Josh Shapiro" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561233
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $6.13M
- Status
- Active
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5455: expansion: detected entity "Pete Hegseth" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561264
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.41M
- Status
- Active
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5457: expansion: detected entity "Pete Buttigieg" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561232
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.23M
- Status
- Active
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5458: expansion: detected entity "Thomas Massie" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561260
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.27M
- Status
- Active
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
proposal #5459: expansion: detected entity "Jon Ossoff" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 561261
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $3.89M
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Andy Beshear
proposal #5428: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=beshear
- External ID
- predictit_contract_34444
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Donald Trump
proposal #5429: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=trump
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32066
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — JD Vance
proposal #6077: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=vance
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32018
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Gavin Newsom
proposal #6078: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=newsom
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32023
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Marco Rubio
proposal #6079: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=rubio
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32024
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Josh Shapiro
proposal #6080: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=shapiro
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32020
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — JB Pritzker
proposal #6082: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=pritzker
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32682
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Tulsi Gabbard
proposal #6083: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=gabbard
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32025
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Jon Ossoff
proposal #6092: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=ossoff
- External ID
- predictit_contract_34386
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? — Pete Buttigieg
proposal #6093: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=buttigieg
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32022
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active