US Elections
Republicans Win House Majority in 2026
2026_republican_house_majority resolves 2026-11-15
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4618: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Both markets ask identical question about GOP House majority in 2026 midterms. Minor date discrepancy (11-04 vs 11-15) resolved to later date. Highly coherent single event. · cluster=2
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.886 | — | $3.7k | $20 | manifold | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.114 | — | $3.7k | $20 | manifold |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?
proposal #5112: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.97 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=rep,house
- External ID
- LuU2p2uI0U
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $233
- Status
- Active
Republicans have a House majority after 2026 midterms?
proposal #5111: title_jaccard=0.80 · date_prox=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · party_office_match=rep
- External ID
- uISNlAqC2E
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Status
- Active