Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №082 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

US Elections

Republicans Win House Majority in 2026

2026_republican_house_majority resolves 2026-11-15

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
4 · 3 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 23.4¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Manifold Markets 33% · price 16¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Kalshi 33% · price 24¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • PredictIt 33% · price 31¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
no no 0.765 — $8.97M —1 kalshi
Manifold Markets us
↳ no 0.846 — $4.1k $20 manifold
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.690 — —1 —1 predictit
Kalshi us
yes yes 0.235 — $8.97M —1 kalshi
Manifold Markets us
↳ yes 0.154 — $4.1k $20 manifold
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.310 — —1 —1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.

§ Spread history

No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: 2026 United States House of Representatives elections ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no