Macro Indicators
US Recession in 2026
us_recession_2026 resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- Macro Indicators
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #2240: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on identical event (US recession in 2026) with aligned resolution dates. Minor date variance (market 3 resolves Jan 2027) reflects standard 30-day settlement buffer; core event is coherent. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.713 | — | $637 | $100 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.745 | — | $1.41M | $27.7k | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.287 | — | $637 | $100 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.255 | — | $1.41M | $27.7k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
US recession in 2026?
proposal #2259: title_jaccard=1.00 · date_prox=0.97 · category=macro_indicators · year_overlap
- External ID
- ElSLRhzqyR
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $637
- Status
- Active
US recession by end of 2026?
proposal #2261: title_jaccard=0.75 · category=macro_indicators · year_overlap
- External ID
- 609655
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $1.41M
- Status
- Active