Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №050 · Last revised 2026-04-26
Open

Macro Indicators

US Recession in 2026

us_recession_2026 resolves 2026-12-31

Category
Macro Indicators
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
2
Linked markets
6 · 6 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Storm consensus 12.5¢ (equal weights — calibration data sparse) ↓ weights
  • Manifold Markets 20% · price 13¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Polymarket 20% · price 13¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Crypto.com 20% · price 15¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Limitless Exchange 20% · price 13¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
  • Kalshi 20% · price 10¢ · brier 0.250 (fallback)
Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Crypto.com us
no No 0.940 — —1 —1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
↳ no 0.905 — $2.54M —1 kalshi
Limitless Exchange
↳ No 0.875 — $4.5k —1 limitless
Manifold Markets us
↳ no 0.874 — $937 $100 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ No 0.870 — $1.61M $30.6k polymarket
Futuur curacao
US economic recession in 2026? US economic recession in 2026? 0.170 — $219 —1 futuur
Crypto.com us
yes Yes 0.150 — —1 —1 crypto_com
Kalshi us
↳ yes 0.095 — $2.54M —1 kalshi
Limitless Exchange
↳ Yes 0.125 — $4.5k —1 limitless
Manifold Markets us
↳ yes 0.126 — $937 $100 manifold
Polymarket us
↳ Yes 0.130 — $1.61M $30.6k polymarket

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • no +400bps
    limitless YES 0.875 · crypto_com NO 0.060 650 bps gross · 250 bps fees · mid-based · 12h ago
  • no +299bps
    polymarket YES 0.870 · crypto_com NO 0.060 700 bps gross · 401 bps fees · mid-based · 1d ago
  • yes +140bps
    kalshi YES 0.100 · limitless NO 0.870 200 bps gross · 60 bps fees · 1m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 1m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  2. 7m ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  3. 13m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  4. 19m ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  5. 23m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  6. 29m ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  7. 33m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  8. 39m ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  9. 43m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  10. 51m ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  11. 55m ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  12. 1h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  13. 1h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  14. 1h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  15. 1h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  16. 1h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  17. 1h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  18. 2h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  19. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  20. 2h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  21. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  22. 2h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  23. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  24. 2h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  25. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  26. 2h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  27. 2h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  28. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  29. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  30. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  31. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  32. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  33. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  34. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  35. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  36. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  37. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  38. 3h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  39. 3h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  40. 4h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  41. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  42. 4h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  43. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  44. 4h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  45. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  46. 4h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  47. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  48. 4h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  49. 4h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  50. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  51. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  52. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  53. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  54. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  55. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  56. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  57. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  58. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  59. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  60. 5h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  61. 5h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  62. 6h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  63. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  64. 6h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  65. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  66. 6h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  67. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  68. 6h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  69. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  70. 6h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  71. 6h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  72. 7h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  73. 7h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  74. 7h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  75. 7h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  76. 7h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  77. 7h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  78. 7h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  79. 7h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  80. 7h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  81. 7h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  82. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  83. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  84. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  85. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  86. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  87. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  88. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  89. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  90. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  91. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  92. 8h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  93. 8h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  94. 9h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  95. 9h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  96. 9h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  97. 9h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  98. 9h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  99. 9h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  100. 9h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  101. 9h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  102. 9h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  103. 9h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  104. 10h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  105. 10h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  106. 10h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  107. 10h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  108. 10h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · kalshi NO 0.095 mid-based +140bps
  109. 10h ago yes kalshi YES 0.095 · limitless NO 0.875 mid-based +140bps
  110. 12h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · crypto_com NO 0.060 mid-based +400bps
  111. 12h ago no limitless YES 0.875 · crypto_com NO 0.060 mid-based +400bps
  112. 1d ago no polymarket YES 0.870 · crypto_com NO 0.060 mid-based +299bps
  113. 1d ago yes polymarket YES 0.130 · crypto_com NO 0.800 mid-based +299bps
  114. 1d ago yes polymarket YES 0.130 · crypto_com NO 0.800 mid-based +299bps

Showing most recent 114 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: Recession ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • yes yes
  • no no