Fed Policy & Rates
June 2026 FOMC rate decision
fed_jun_2026_rate_decision resolves 2026-06-17
- Category
- Fed Policy & Rates
- Resolution basis
- fomc_statement
- Canonical outcomes
- 12
- Linked markets
- 8 · 2 venues
Direction and magnitude at the June 2026 FOMC meeting.
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
cut_25 yes | 0.014 | — | $91 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.0005 | — | $30.93M | $1.04M | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
NOT cut_25 no | 0.986 | — | $91 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 1.000 | — | $30.93M | $1.04M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_50 Yes | 0.0005 | — | $37.87M | $3.97M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_50 No | 1.000 | — | $37.87M | $3.97M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Fed Funds Target Rate Yes | 0.015 | — | $889.3k | $165.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Fed Funds Target Rate No | 0.985 | — | $889.3k | $165.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hike_25 Yes | 0.0005 | — | $31.04M | $1.14M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hike_25 No | 1.000 | — | $31.04M | $1.14M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hold Yes | 1.000 | — | $43.06M | $1.45M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hold No | 0.0005 | — | $43.06M | $1.45M | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Recent news
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.
§ Canonical outcomes
- cut_50 cut_50
- cut_25 cut_25
- hold hold
- hike_25 hike_25
- fed-funds-target-rate Fed Funds Target Rate
- ff-061826-1-875-yes FF_061826_1.875 YES
- ff-061826-1-875-no FF_061826_1.875 NO
- ff-061826-1-625-yes FF_061826_1.625 YES
- ff-061826-1-625-no FF_061826_1.625 NO
- ff-061826-1-375-yes FF_061826_1.375 YES
- ff-061826-1-375-no FF_061826_1.375 NO
- other Other / No candidate named
§ Linked markets
Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?
proposal #806: title_jaccard=0.27 · date_prox=0.47 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- PI9Cd8EnZh
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $91
- Status
- Inactive
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #179: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=hike_25
- External ID
- 906975
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $31.04M
- Status
- Inactive
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #182: title_jaccard=0.18 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=hold
- External ID
- 906974
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $43.06M
- Status
- Inactive
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #535: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- 906973
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $30.93M
- Status
- Inactive
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
proposal #17426: title_jaccard=0.38 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=fed-funds-target-rate
- External ID
- 949495
- Matched
- 27d ago
- Volume
- $785.0k
- Status
- Inactive
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?
proposal #46678: title_jaccard=0.22 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=fed-funds-target-rate
- External ID
- 1439550
- Matched
- 25d ago
- Volume
- $58.5k
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #171: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_50
- External ID
- 906972
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $37.87M
- Status
- Inactive
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?
proposal #48355: title_jaccard=0.38 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=fed-funds-target-rate
- External ID
- 1808545
- Matched
- 25d ago
- Volume
- $45.8k
- Status
- Inactive