Fed Policy & Rates
June 2026 FOMC rate decision
fed_jun_2026_rate_decision resolves 2026-06-17
- Category
- Fed Policy & Rates
- Resolution basis
- fomc_statement
- Canonical outcomes
- 4
- Linked markets
- 5 · 2 venues
Direction and magnitude at the June 2026 FOMC meeting.
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
cut_25 yes | 0.045 | — | $37 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.025 | — | $1.91M | $354.6k | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
NOT cut_25 no | 0.955 | — | $37 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.975 | — | $1.91M | $354.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_50 Yes | 0.0065 | — | $3.33M | $237.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_50 No | 0.994 | — | $3.33M | $237.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hike_25 Yes | 0.013 | — | $2.40M | $371.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hike_25 No | 0.987 | — | $2.40M | $371.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hold Yes | 0.955 | — | $2.44M | $349.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hold No | 0.045 | — | $2.44M | $349.1k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- cut_50 cut_50
- cut_25 cut_25
- hold hold
- hike_25 hike_25
§ Linked markets
Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at the June 2026 FOMC meeting?
proposal #806: title_jaccard=0.27 · date_prox=0.47 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- PI9Cd8EnZh
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $37
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #171: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_50
- External ID
- 906972
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $3.33M
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #179: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=hike_25
- External ID
- 906975
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $2.40M
- Status
- Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #182: title_jaccard=0.18 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=hold
- External ID
- 906974
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $2.44M
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
proposal #535: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (june 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- 906973
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $1.91M
- Status
- Active