§ Category
Fed Policy & Rates
FOMC rate decisions, funds-rate bands, and Fed chair succession.
§ Primer
FOMC rate decisions, funds-rate bands, and Fed chair succession.
Monetary-policy markets clump around the eight scheduled FOMC meetings per year, plus two or three "by the end of" aggregate markets on the year-end funds rate band. Kalshi is the deepest venue on US-rate questions; Polymarket carries parallel decision-by-decision contracts; ForecastEx lists settlement-only year-end bands with CFTC oversight.
Canonical outcomes use bps-change slugs (cut_25, hold, hike_25, etc.) for per-meeting markets, and target-range slugs (range_350_375, range_375_400, ...) for end-of-year markets. The matcher has rule tables specifically for FOMC aliases so "25 bp cut" and "-25bps" and "cut by 0.25%" all map to the same canonical outcome.
Resolution pitfalls: inter-meeting emergency moves, dissents that flip the headline decision vs the actual implemented band, and the difference between the upper and lower bound of the funds-rate target range. Storm surfaces the venue's stated resolution source on every event page.