Fed Policy & Rates
July 2026 FOMC rate decision
fed_jul_2026_rate_decision resolves 2026-07-29
- Category
- Fed Policy & Rates
- Resolution basis
- fomc_statement
- Canonical outcomes
- 4
- Linked markets
- 4 · 1 venue
Direction and magnitude at the July 2026 FOMC meeting.
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_25 Yes | 0.018 | — | $1.44M | $120.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_25 No | 0.982 | — | $1.44M | $120.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_50 Yes | 0.0065 | — | $1.69M | $263.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_50 No | 0.994 | — | $1.69M | $263.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hike_25 Yes | 0.175 | — | $4.51M | $145.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hike_25 No | 0.825 | — | $4.51M | $145.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hold Yes | 0.795 | — | $2.19M | $186.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hold No | 0.205 | — | $2.19M | $186.3k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Recent news
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.
§ Canonical outcomes
- cut_50 cut_50
- cut_25 cut_25
- hold hold
- hike_25 hike_25
§ Linked markets
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #169: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=hike_25
- External ID
- 1654959
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $4.51M
- Status
- Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #692: title_jaccard=0.18 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=hold
- External ID
- 1654958
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $2.19M
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #703: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_50
- External ID
- 1654956
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $1.69M
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #745: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- 1654957
- Matched
- 54d ago
- Volume
- $1.44M
- Status
- Active