Fed Policy & Rates
July 2026 FOMC rate decision
fed_jul_2026_rate_decision resolves 2026-07-29
- Category
- Fed Policy & Rates
- Resolution basis
- fomc_statement
- Canonical outcomes
- 4
- Linked markets
- 4 · 1 venue
Direction and magnitude at the July 2026 FOMC meeting.
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_25 Yes | 0.075 | — | $203.2k | $96.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_25 No | 0.925 | — | $203.2k | $96.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
cut_50 Yes | 0.021 | — | $299.4k | $61.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT cut_50 No | 0.979 | — | $299.4k | $61.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hike_25 Yes | 0.033 | — | $3.15M | $43.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hike_25 No | 0.968 | — | $3.15M | $43.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
hold Yes | 0.875 | — | $441.6k | $223.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT hold No | 0.125 | — | $441.6k | $223.6k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- cut_50 cut_50
- cut_25 cut_25
- hold hold
- hike_25 hike_25
§ Linked markets
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #169: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=hike_25
- External ID
- 1654959
- Matched
- 5d ago
- Volume
- $3.15M
- Status
- Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #692: title_jaccard=0.18 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=hold
- External ID
- 1654958
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $441.6k
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #703: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_50
- External ID
- 1654956
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $299.4k
- Status
- Active
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
proposal #745: title_jaccard=0.17 · date_prox=1.00 · category=fed_policy · year_overlap · fomc month+year match (july 2026) · canonical_outcome=cut_25
- External ID
- 1654957
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $203.2k
- Status
- Active