US Elections
2026 New York Governor's Race Winner
2026_new_york_governor_election resolves 2026-11-04
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 3
- Linked markets
- 4 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #2991: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets coherently describe the 2026 NY gubernatorial race outcome by party. Manifold provides explicit resolution date; PredictIt markets lack dates but match the same event. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PredictIt
us
|
Democratic yes | 0.930 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
NOT Democratic no | 0.070 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Republican Yes | 0.025 | — | $63.0k | $3.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.065 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Republican No | 0.975 | — | $63.0k | $3.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.935 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- democratic Democratic
- republican Republican
- other Other
§ Linked markets
Will David Tulley win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?
proposal #7803: title_jaccard=0.40 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=republican · party_office_match=governor · us_state_match=ny
- External ID
- 824321
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $41.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Betsy McCaughey win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?
proposal #8134: title_jaccard=0.40 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=republican · party_office_match=governor · us_state_match=ny
- External ID
- 824322
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Status
- Active
Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of New York? — Democratic
proposal #2999: title_jaccard=0.50 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=democratic · party_office_match=governor
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32172
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Which party will win the 2026 election for governor of New York? — Republican
proposal #3000: title_jaccard=0.50 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=republican · party_office_match=governor
- External ID
- predictit_contract_32171
- Matched
- 3d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active