US Elections
2028 Democratic Presidential Nomination Winner
2028_democratic_presidential_nomination_winner resolves 2028-11-07
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 18
- Linked markets
- 14 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5275: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · [merged 5 clusters] Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same Democratic nomination race (2028, same date). Canonical categorical event with observed candidates plus 'other' catch-all. | merged: Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same 2028 Democratic nomination race. Canonical categorical event with observed candidates plus 'other' catch-all. | merged: Three individual-candidate binary markets on the same underlying 2028 Democratic nomination race. Merges into one categorical event with ob · cluster=15
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Chelsea Clinton Yes | 0.0095 | — | $47.89M | $512.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Chelsea Clinton No | 0.991 | — | $47.89M | $512.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Liz Cheney Yes | 0.0075 | — | $35.48M | $1.40M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Liz Cheney No | 0.993 | — | $35.48M | $1.40M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Chris Murphy Yes | 0.0065 | — | $14.37M | $1.34M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Chris Murphy No | 0.994 | — | $14.37M | $1.34M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
George Clooney Yes | 0.0065 | — | $39.77M | $1.51M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT George Clooney No | 0.994 | — | $39.77M | $1.51M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Hillary Clinton Yes | 0.0065 | — | $40.12M | $2.35M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Hillary Clinton No | 0.994 | — | $40.12M | $2.35M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Jon Stewart Yes | 0.021 | — | $22.59M | $539.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Jon Stewart No | 0.979 | — | $22.59M | $539.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
LeBron James Yes | 0.0075 | — | $40.88M | $1.57M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT LeBron James No | 0.993 | — | $40.88M | $1.57M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
MrBeast Yes | 0.0075 | — | $37.18M | $1.46M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT MrBeast No | 0.993 | — | $37.18M | $1.46M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gavin Newsom Yes | 0.267 | — | $24.79M | $248.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gavin Newsom No | 0.734 | — | $24.79M | $248.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Barack Obama Yes | 0.0075 | — | $29.03M | $2.01M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Barack Obama No | 0.993 | — | $29.03M | $2.01M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Oprah Winfrey Yes | 0.0065 | — | $49.64M | $1.77M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Oprah Winfrey No | 0.994 | — | $49.64M | $1.77M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Stephen A. Smith Yes | 0.011 | — | $19.87M | $247.2k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.015 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Stephen A. Smith No | 0.990 | — | $19.87M | $247.2k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.985 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gretchen Whitmer Yes | 0.013 | — | $8.59M | $586.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gretchen Whitmer No | 0.987 | — | $8.59M | $586.7k | polymarket |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- oprah_winfrey Oprah Winfrey
- mrbeast MrBeast
- chelsea_clinton Chelsea Clinton
- lebron_james LeBron James
- james_talarico James Talarico
- hillary_clinton Hillary Clinton
- clooney George Clooney
- kardashian Kim Kardashian
- cheney Liz Cheney
- mamdani Zohran Mamdani
- biden_h Hunter Biden
- obama Barack Obama
- jon_stewart Jon Stewart
- stephen_a_smith Stephen A. Smith
- chris_murphy Chris Murphy
- other Other
- newsom Gavin Newsom
- whitmer Gretchen Whitmer
§ Linked markets
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5378: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=oprah_winfrey · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559687
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $49.64M
- Status
- Active
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5379: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=chelsea_clinton · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559684
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $47.89M
- Status
- Active
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5380: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=lebron_james · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559681
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $40.88M
- Status
- Active
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5381: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=hillary_clinton · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559677
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $40.12M
- Status
- Active
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5382: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=clooney · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559683
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $39.77M
- Status
- Active
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5384: title_jaccard=0.80 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=mrbeast · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559685
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $37.18M
- Status
- Active
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5385: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=cheney · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559678
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $35.48M
- Status
- Active
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5388: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=obama · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559676
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $29.03M
- Status
- Active
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5389: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=jon_stewart · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559675
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $22.59M
- Status
- Active
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5390: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=stephen_a_smith · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559657
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $19.87M
- Status
- Active
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5391: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=chris_murphy · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- 559691
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $14.37M
- Status
- Active
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5396: expansion: detected entity "Gavin Newsom" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 559652
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $24.79M
- Status
- Active
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
proposal #5401: expansion: detected entity "Gretchen Whitmer" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 559659
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $8.59M
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — Stephen A Smith
proposal #5934: title_jaccard=0.67 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=stephen_a_smith · party_office_match=dem
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31943
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active