US Elections
2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary Winner
2026_texas_republican_senate_primary_winner resolves 2026-05-26
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 5
- Linked markets
- 6 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #5292: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets converge on the 2026 TX GOP Senate primary race. Market 1 asks if Hunt wins; Markets 2–3 ask for the overall winner. Wesley Hunt is the only named candidate observed. Treating as categorical with Hunt + other catch-all. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Dawn Buckingham Yes | 0.0005 | — | $951.6k | $18.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Dawn Buckingham No | 1.000 | — | $951.6k | $18.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Beth Van Duyne Yes | 0.0015 | — | $5.49M | $18.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Beth Van Duyne No | 0.999 | — | $5.49M | $18.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Ken Paxton Yes | 0.575 | — | $4.32M | $56.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.640 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Ken Paxton No | 0.425 | — | $4.32M | $56.8k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.360 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Wesley Hunt Yes | 0.0005 | — | $1.84M | $20.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ yes | 0.010 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Wesley Hunt No | 1.000 | — | $1.84M | $20.7k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
↳ no | 0.990 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- wesley_hunt Wesley Hunt
- other Other
- duyne Beth Van Duyne
- paxton Ken Paxton
- buckingham Dawn Buckingham
§ Linked markets
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
proposal #5463: title_jaccard=0.57 · date_prox=1.00 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=wesley_hunt · party_office_match=rep · us_state_match=tx
- External ID
- 562190
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $1.84M
- Status
- Active
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
proposal #5466: expansion: detected entity "Beth Van Duyne" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 562189
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.49M
- Status
- Active
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
proposal #5467: expansion: detected entity "Ken Paxton" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 562186
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $4.32M
- Status
- Active
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
proposal #5843: expansion: detected entity "Dawn Buckingham" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 562188
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $951.6k
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate nomination? — Wesley Hunt
proposal #5465: title_jaccard=0.50 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=wesley_hunt · party_office_match=rep,senate · us_state_match=tx
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31980
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active
Who will win the 2026 Texas Republican Senate nomination? — Ken Paxton
proposal #6091: title_jaccard=0.50 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=paxton · party_office_match=rep,senate · us_state_match=tx
- External ID
- predictit_contract_31979
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active