United States
Metaculus
Academic / play-money forecasting platform — no money changes hands; no regulatory regime applies.
- Country
- United States
- Taker fee
- 0 bps
- Typical gas
- —
§ Notes
Storm uses Metaculus as an EXPERT-FORECASTER CONSENSUS / INSIDER-PROXY signal — NOT an arb venue. The user population (academics, IC hobbyists, expert forecasters) is structurally different from real-money venues; pseudonymous research-platform forecasters do not leave a subpoena trail when posting on Metaculus, so MNPI rationally surfaces here ahead of the CFTC-regulated DCMs. Client module exports tradeable=false so the spread detector excludes it from fee-aware arb math. API: /api/posts/ paginated list, requires Authorization: Token <METACULUS_API_TOKEN>. Free signup at metaculus.com/aib/. Ingest cadence 30 min — academic platform updates slowly. volume_total_usd is hijacked to mean forecasts_count (no orderbook); liquidity_current_usd is always 0. Skips questions whose community_prediction has not been revealed (~<10 forecasters).
§ Coverage
- Markets ingested
- 319
- Active
- 37
- Delisted
- 186
- Events linked
- 5
- Last ingest
- 48m ago
§ Top events by volume
§ Schema health
Storm runs a canary against every venue that compares live API responses against the last-known schema shape. Drift, missing fields, and unexpected null-rates raise alarms routed to the operator queue.
§ Recent markets
- Will the US and India finalise a new bilateral trade agreement before August 2026?
- Which party’s candidate will win the 2026 Saalekreis Landrat runoff election in Saxony-Anhalt, Germany?
- Will the Trump administration attempt to withdraw from key international arms control agreements in 2025?
- Will France and Russia engage in significant direct military conflict before 2031?
- Will shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz return to normal on any day before September 2026?
- Will the U.S. Senate pass another budget reconciliation bill before July 4, 2026?
- Will OpenAI either have a valuation of less than $200bn USD or have filed for bankruptcy before January 1, 2028?
- Will U.S. District Judge Eleanor L. Ross leave office before 2027?
- Will the Community beat Dylan Matthews in the Metaculus Cup Summer 2026?
- Will any non-superconducting quantum processor demonstrate below-threshold error correction before January 1, 2029?
§ Ingest cadence and policy
Storm ingests from this venue on the standard pull cadence (default hourly for the daemon; on-demand via storm markets pull metaculus). The ingester stores the raw payload alongside the normalized fields, so schema changes can be replayed without re-fetching.
Policy note: Storm uses Metaculus as an EXPERT-FORECASTER CONSENSUS / INSIDER-PROXY signal — NOT an arb venue. The user population (academics, IC hobbyists, expert forecasters) is structurally different from real-money venues; pseudonymous research-platform forecasters do not leave a subpoena trail when posting on Metaculus, so MNPI rationally surfaces here ahead of the CFTC-regulated DCMs. Client module exports tradeable=false so the spread detector excludes it from fee-aware arb math. API: /api/posts/ paginated list, requires Authorization: Token <METACULUS_API_TOKEN>. Free signup at metaculus.com/aib/. Ingest cadence 30 min — academic platform updates slowly. volume_total_usd is hijacked to mean forecasts_count (no orderbook); liquidity_current_usd is always 0. Skips questions whose community_prediction has not been revealed (~<10 forecasters).