United States
Metaculus
Academic / play-money forecasting platform — no money changes hands; no regulatory regime applies.
- Country
- United States
- Taker fee
- 0 bps
- Typical gas
- —
§ Notes
Storm uses Metaculus as an EXPERT-FORECASTER CONSENSUS / INSIDER-PROXY signal — NOT an arb venue. The user population (academics, IC hobbyists, expert forecasters) is structurally different from real-money venues; pseudonymous research-platform forecasters do not leave a subpoena trail when posting on Metaculus, so MNPI rationally surfaces here ahead of the CFTC-regulated DCMs. Client module exports tradeable=false so the spread detector excludes it from fee-aware arb math. API: /api/posts/ paginated list, requires Authorization: Token <METACULUS_API_TOKEN>. Free signup at metaculus.com/aib/. Ingest cadence 30 min — academic platform updates slowly. volume_total_usd is hijacked to mean forecasts_count (no orderbook); liquidity_current_usd is always 0. Skips questions whose community_prediction has not been revealed (~<10 forecasters).
§ Coverage
- Markets ingested
- 2
- Active
- 2
- Delisted
- 0
- Events linked
- 0
- Last ingest
- 18m ago
§ Top events by volume
No linked markets on this venue yet. As the matcher runs, event_link rows populate this table.
§ Schema health
Storm runs a canary against every venue that compares live API responses against the last-known schema shape. Drift, missing fields, and unexpected null-rates raise alarms routed to the operator queue.
§ Recent markets
- Will there be a nationwide anti-government uprising in Russia between September 20 and November 1, 2026?
- Will Russia order a general mobilization before January 1, 2027?
§ Ingest cadence and policy
Storm ingests from this venue on the standard pull cadence (default hourly for the daemon; on-demand via storm markets pull metaculus). The ingester stores the raw payload alongside the normalized fields, so schema changes can be replayed without re-fetching.
Policy note: Storm uses Metaculus as an EXPERT-FORECASTER CONSENSUS / INSIDER-PROXY signal — NOT an arb venue. The user population (academics, IC hobbyists, expert forecasters) is structurally different from real-money venues; pseudonymous research-platform forecasters do not leave a subpoena trail when posting on Metaculus, so MNPI rationally surfaces here ahead of the CFTC-regulated DCMs. Client module exports tradeable=false so the spread detector excludes it from fee-aware arb math. API: /api/posts/ paginated list, requires Authorization: Token <METACULUS_API_TOKEN>. Free signup at metaculus.com/aib/. Ingest cadence 30 min — academic platform updates slowly. volume_total_usd is hijacked to mean forecasts_count (no orderbook); liquidity_current_usd is always 0. Skips questions whose community_prediction has not been revealed (~<10 forecasters).