Geopolitics
Will the US Officially Declare War on Iran
us_declare_war_iran resolves 2026-04-30
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 1 venue
[resolution note] [resolved-event-sweep] As of May 1, 2026, the US has not officially declared war on Iran; no declaration of war has been passed by Congress or signed into law. (https://www.congress.gov/bills) confidence=0.970
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
no No | 0.989 | — | $3.02M | $754.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
yes Yes | 0.011 | — | $3.02M | $754.9k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Recent news
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
proposal #7027: chain from discovery proposal #7018: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1707316
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $2.42M
- Status
- Inactive
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
proposal #7028: chain from discovery proposal #7018: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1170144
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $601.7k
- Status
- Active