Geopolitics
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Timeline
russia_ukraine_ceasefire resolves 2026-07-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 4 · 1 venue
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
no No | 0.051 | — | $192.55M | $23.26M | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
yes Yes | 0.949 | — | $192.55M | $23.26M | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Recent news
Wikipedia: Russo-Ukrainian War ↗
No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
proposal #6988: chain from discovery proposal #6983: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1439560
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $9.53M
- Status
- Inactive
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
proposal #6989: chain from discovery proposal #6983: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1171663
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $56.01M
- Status
- Inactive
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
proposal #6991: chain from discovery proposal #6983: assigned by cluster
- External ID
- 1795527
- Matched
- 42d ago
- Volume
- $126.70M
- Status
- Inactive
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
proposal #15461: title_jaccard=0.38 · category=geopolitics
- External ID
- 2243896
- Matched
- 32d ago
- Volume
- $301.9k
- Status
- Active