Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №038 · Last revised 2026-04-28
Open

Entertainment

Who Will Be The Next James Bond?

next_james_bond_actor_2030 resolves 2030-01-01

Category
Entertainment
Resolution basis
Canonical outcomes
19
Linked markets
19 · 2 venues

Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #930: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on competing candidates for next Bond actor, same resolution date. Forms coherent categorical event. 'Other' included as casting could go to unlisted actor. · cluster=3

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Kalshi us
Aaron Pierre yes 0.035 $12.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Aaron Pierre no 0.965 $12.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Aaron Taylor-Johnson yes 0.135 $121.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Aaron Taylor-Johnson no 0.865 $121.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Callum Turner yes 0.445 $197.4k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Callum Turner no 0.555 $197.4k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Charlie Hunnam yes 0.020 $5.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Charlie Hunnam no 0.980 $5.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Cillian Murphy yes 0.020 $6.7k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Cillian Murphy no 0.980 $6.7k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Damson Idris yes 0.035 $19.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Damson Idris no 0.965 $19.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Harris Dickinson yes 0.030 $20.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Harris Dickinson no 0.970 $20.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Henry Cavill yes 0.035 $37.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Henry Cavill no 0.965 $37.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Jack Lowden yes 0.025 $10.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Jack Lowden no 0.975 $10.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Jacob Elordi yes 0.195 $108.3k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Jacob Elordi no 0.805 $108.3k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
James Norton yes 0.025 $12.7k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT James Norton no 0.975 $12.7k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Jonathan Bailey yes 0.025 $5.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Jonathan Bailey no 0.975 $5.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Josh O'Connor yes 0.075 $52.1k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Josh O'Connor no 0.925 $52.1k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Regé-Jean Page yes 0.020 $8.0k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Regé-Jean Page no 0.980 $8.0k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Richard Madden yes 0.020 $3.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Richard Madden no 0.980 $3.6k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Theo James yes 0.040 $27.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
Yes 0.0040 $219.8k $3.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
NOT Theo James no 0.960 $27.8k 1 kalshi
Polymarket us
No 0.996 $219.8k $3.0k polymarket
Kalshi us
Tom Hardy yes 0.040 $6.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Tom Hardy no 0.960 $6.2k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
Tom Holland yes 0.095 $23.9k 1 kalshi
Kalshi us
NOT Tom Holland no 0.905 $23.9k 1 kalshi

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

No fillable spreads in the last 24 hours. (Rows whose nominal edge depends on a price below 0.0050 are hidden — at those levels the bid-ask gap typically erases the printed edge.)

§ Spread history

  1. 8m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  2. 26m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  3. 38m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  4. 56m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  5. 1h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  6. 1h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  7. 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  8. 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  9. 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  10. 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
  11. 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  12. 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  13. 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  14. 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  15. 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  16. 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  17. 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  18. 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  19. 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  20. 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  21. 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  22. 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  23. 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  24. 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  25. 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  26. 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  27. 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  28. 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  29. 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
  30. 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  31. 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  32. 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  33. 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  34. 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  35. 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  36. 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  37. 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  38. 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  39. 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  40. 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  41. 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  42. 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  43. 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  44. 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  45. 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  46. 15h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  47. 15h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  48. 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  49. 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  50. 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  51. 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  52. 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  53. 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  54. 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  55. 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  56. 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  57. 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  58. 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  59. 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  60. 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  61. 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  62. 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  63. 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
  64. 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  65. 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  66. 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  67. 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  68. 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  69. 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  70. 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  71. 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  72. 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  73. 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  74. 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  75. 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  76. 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  77. 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  78. 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  79. 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  80. 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  81. 1d ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
  82. 1d ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps

Showing most recent 164 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Canonical outcomes

  • aaron_pierre Aaron Pierre
  • aaron_taylor_johnson Aaron Taylor-Johnson
  • james_norton James Norton
  • other Other
  • tom-hardy Tom Hardy
  • henry-cavill Henry Cavill
  • damson-idris Damson Idris
  • richard-madden Richard Madden
  • rege-jean-page Regé-Jean Page
  • theo-james Theo James
  • cillian-murphy Cillian Murphy
  • jonathan-bailey Jonathan Bailey
  • harris-dickinson Harris Dickinson
  • jack-lowden Jack Lowden
  • tom-holland Tom Holland
  • jacob-elordi Jacob Elordi
  • charlie-hunnam Charlie Hunnam
  • josh-oconnor Josh O'Connor
  • callum-turner Callum Turner