Entertainment
Who Will Be The Next James Bond?
next_james_bond_actor_2030 resolves 2030-01-01
- Category
- Entertainment
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 19
- Linked markets
- 19 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #930: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on competing candidates for next Bond actor, same resolution date. Forms coherent categorical event. 'Other' included as casting could go to unlisted actor. · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kalshi
us
|
Aaron Pierre yes | 0.035 | — | $12.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Aaron Pierre no | 0.965 | — | $12.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Aaron Taylor-Johnson yes | 0.135 | — | $121.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Aaron Taylor-Johnson no | 0.865 | — | $121.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Callum Turner yes | 0.445 | — | $197.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Callum Turner no | 0.555 | — | $197.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Charlie Hunnam yes | 0.020 | — | $5.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Charlie Hunnam no | 0.980 | — | $5.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Cillian Murphy yes | 0.020 | — | $6.7k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Cillian Murphy no | 0.980 | — | $6.7k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Damson Idris yes | 0.035 | — | $19.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Damson Idris no | 0.965 | — | $19.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Harris Dickinson yes | 0.030 | — | $20.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Harris Dickinson no | 0.970 | — | $20.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Henry Cavill yes | 0.035 | — | $37.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Henry Cavill no | 0.965 | — | $37.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Jack Lowden yes | 0.025 | — | $10.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Jack Lowden no | 0.975 | — | $10.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Jacob Elordi yes | 0.195 | — | $108.3k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Jacob Elordi no | 0.805 | — | $108.3k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
James Norton yes | 0.025 | — | $12.7k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT James Norton no | 0.975 | — | $12.7k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Jonathan Bailey yes | 0.025 | — | $5.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Jonathan Bailey no | 0.975 | — | $5.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Josh O'Connor yes | 0.075 | — | $52.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Josh O'Connor no | 0.925 | — | $52.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Regé-Jean Page yes | 0.020 | — | $8.0k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Regé-Jean Page no | 0.980 | — | $8.0k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Richard Madden yes | 0.020 | — | $3.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Richard Madden no | 0.980 | — | $3.6k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Theo James yes | 0.040 | — | $27.8k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.0040 | — | $219.8k | $3.0k | polymarket | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Theo James no | 0.960 | — | $27.8k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.996 | — | $219.8k | $3.0k | polymarket | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Tom Hardy yes | 0.040 | — | $6.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Tom Hardy no | 0.960 | — | $6.2k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Tom Holland yes | 0.095 | — | $23.9k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Tom Holland no | 0.905 | — | $23.9k | —1 | kalshi |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No fillable spreads in the last 24 hours. (Rows whose nominal edge depends on a price below 0.0050 are hidden — at those levels the bid-ask gap typically erases the printed edge.)
§ Spread history
- 8m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 26m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 38m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 56m ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 1h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 1h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 2h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +144bps
- 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 3h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 4h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 5h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 6h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.960 mid-based +139bps
- 7h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 11h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 12h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 13h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 14h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 15h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 15h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 16h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 17h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 18h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0050 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +189bps
- 19h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 20h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 21h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 22h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 23h ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 1d ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
- 1d ago Theo James polymarket YES 0.0045 · kalshi NO 0.955 mid-based +194bps
Showing most recent 164 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →
§ Canonical outcomes
- aaron_pierre Aaron Pierre
- aaron_taylor_johnson Aaron Taylor-Johnson
- james_norton James Norton
- other Other
- tom-hardy Tom Hardy
- henry-cavill Henry Cavill
- damson-idris Damson Idris
- richard-madden Richard Madden
- rege-jean-page Regé-Jean Page
- theo-james Theo James
- cillian-murphy Cillian Murphy
- jonathan-bailey Jonathan Bailey
- harris-dickinson Harris Dickinson
- jack-lowden Jack Lowden
- tom-holland Tom Holland
- jacob-elordi Jacob Elordi
- charlie-hunnam Charlie Hunnam
- josh-oconnor Josh O'Connor
- callum-turner Callum Turner
§ Linked markets
Will James Norton be the next James Bond?
proposal #1000: title_jaccard=0.75 · date_prox=0.98 · canonical_outcome=james_norton
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-JN
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $12.7k
- Status
- Active
Will Aaron Pierre be the next James Bond?
proposal #998: title_jaccard=0.60 · date_prox=0.98 · canonical_outcome=aaron_pierre
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-AP
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Aaron Taylor-Johnson be the next James Bond?
proposal #999: title_jaccard=0.50 · date_prox=0.98 · canonical_outcome=aaron_taylor_johnson
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-ATJ
- Matched
- 4d ago
- Volume
- $121.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Tom Hardy be the next James Bond?
proposal #1161: expansion: detected entity "Tom Hardy" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-TOM
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $6.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Henry Cavill be the next James Bond?
proposal #1162: expansion: detected entity "Henry Cavill" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-HC
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $37.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Damson Idris be the next James Bond?
proposal #1163: expansion: detected entity "Damson Idris" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-DI
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $19.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Richard Madden be the next James Bond?
proposal #1164: expansion: detected entity "Richard Madden" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-RM
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Regé-Jean Page be the next James Bond?
proposal #1165: expansion: detected entity "Regé-Jean Page" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-REG
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $8.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Theo James be the next James Bond?
proposal #1166: expansion: detected entity "Theo James" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-THEO
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $27.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Cillian Murphy be the next James Bond?
proposal #1167: expansion: detected entity "Cillian Murphy" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-CIL
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $6.7k
- Status
- Active
Will Jonathan Bailey be the next James Bond?
proposal #1168: expansion: detected entity "Jonathan Bailey" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-JON
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Harris Dickinson be the next James Bond?
proposal #1169: expansion: detected entity "Harris Dickinson" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-HAR
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $20.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Jack Lowden be the next James Bond?
proposal #1170: expansion: detected entity "Jack Lowden" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-JAC
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $10.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Tom Holland be the next James Bond?
proposal #1172: expansion: detected entity "Tom Holland" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-TOMH
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $23.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Jacob Elordi be the next James Bond?
proposal #1173: expansion: detected entity "Jacob Elordi" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-JACO
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $108.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Charlie Hunnam be the next James Bond?
proposal #1174: expansion: detected entity "Charlie Hunnam" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-CHARL
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Josh O'Connor be the next James Bond?
proposal #1176: expansion: detected entity "Josh O'Connor" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-JOS
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $52.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Callum Turner be the next James Bond?
proposal #1177: expansion: detected entity "Callum Turner" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXBOND-30-CAL
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $197.4k
- Status
- Active
Paul Mescal announced as next James Bond?
proposal #5047: title_jaccard=0.50 · canonical_outcome=theo-james
- External ID
- 572112
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $219.8k
- Status
- Active