US Elections
Next US Supreme Court Justice to Leave
scotus_next_vacancy resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 26
- Linked markets
- 2 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #11125: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=20 · venues=1 · candidates=23 · joke_filtered=1 · signature=[supreme,court,justice,leave,next]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Kalshi
us
|
Stuart Kyle Duncan yes | 0.0075 | — | $4.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Stuart Kyle Duncan no | 0.993 | — | $4.4k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Kate Comerford Todd yes | 0.0075 | — | $5.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Kate Comerford Todd no | 0.993 | — | $5.1k | —1 | kalshi |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- justice Justice
- supreme_court Supreme Court
- andrew_oldham Andrew Oldham
- clint_bolick Clint Bolick
- david_stras David Stras
- emil_bove Emil Bove
- evan_young Evan Young
- gregory Gregory
- james_ho James Ho
- john_sauer John Sauer
- katsas Katsas
- kevin_brobson Kevin Brobson
- kevin_newsom Kevin Newsom
- kristen_waggoner Kristen Waggoner
- mark_martin Mark Martin
- matthew_kacsmaryk Matthew Kacsmaryk
- michael_park Michael Park
- mike_lee Mike Lee
- morse_tan Morse Tan
- patrick_wyrick Patrick Wyrick
- ron_desantis Ron DeSantis
- ted_cruz Ted Cruz
- tom_cotton Tom Cotton
- other Other
- duncan Stuart Kyle Duncan
- todd Kate Comerford Todd
§ Linked markets
Will Stuart Kyle Duncan become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
proposal #11235: expansion: detected entity "Stuart Kyle Duncan" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXSCOURT-29-SKD
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $4.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Kate Comerford Todd become the next Justice on the Supreme Court?
proposal #11237: expansion: detected entity "Kate Comerford Todd" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- KXSCOURT-29-KCT
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $5.1k
- Status
- Active