Open
Geopolitics
Will China Invade Taiwan by 2027
china_invade_taiwan resolves 2027-12-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 2
- Linked markets
- 2 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #11371: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=2 · venues=1 · candidates=0 · joke_filtered=1 · signature=[china,invade,taiwan,2027]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
no no | 0.860 | — | $1.8k | $24 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.835 | — | $409.5k | $122.6k | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
yes yes | 0.140 | — | $1.8k | $24 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.165 | — | $409.5k | $122.6k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- yes yes
- no no
§ Linked markets
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
proposal #11398: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=0.97 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap
- External ID
- x0N5kcbmFRaaxlj49kzO
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $1.8k
- Status
- Active
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
proposal #11394: title_jaccard=0.67 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap
- External ID
- 1633611
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $409.5k
- Status
- Active