Sports
2026 Ballon d'Or Winner
ballon_dor_winner_2026 resolves 2026-10-31
- Category
- Sports
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 17
- Linked markets
- 14 · 1 venue
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #4615: llm:anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5 · Three markets on same event (2026 Ballon d'Or winner). One general market plus two specific-candidate markets form coherent categorical event. Resolution dates align (Oct 31 most representative). · cluster=3
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Cole Palmer Yes | 0.0025 | — | $38.5k | $46.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Cole Palmer No | 0.998 | — | $38.5k | $46.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Cristiano Ronaldo Yes | 0.014 | — | $28.3k | $11.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Cristiano Ronaldo No | 0.986 | — | $28.3k | $11.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Declan Rice Yes | 0.026 | — | $24.4k | $27.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Declan Rice No | 0.974 | — | $24.4k | $27.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Erling Haaland Yes | 0.015 | — | $247.5k | $51.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Erling Haaland No | 0.985 | — | $247.5k | $51.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Jude Bellingham Yes | 0.0025 | — | $192.8k | $51.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Jude Bellingham No | 0.998 | — | $192.8k | $51.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Yes | 0.029 | — | $19.5k | $13.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Khvicha Kvaratskhelia No | 0.971 | — | $19.5k | $13.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Kylian Mbappé Yes | 0.115 | — | $107.9k | $57.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Kylian Mbappé No | 0.885 | — | $107.9k | $57.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Lamine Yamal Yes | 0.095 | — | $63.5k | $25.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Lamine Yamal No | 0.905 | — | $63.5k | $25.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Luis Diaz Yes | 0.011 | — | $26.4k | $12.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Luis Diaz No | 0.990 | — | $26.4k | $12.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Michael Olise Yes | 0.175 | — | $45.6k | $12.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Michael Olise No | 0.825 | — | $45.6k | $12.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Mohamed Salah Yes | 0.0025 | — | $120.5k | $30.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Mohamed Salah No | 0.998 | — | $120.5k | $30.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Pedri Yes | 0.011 | — | $264.9k | $41.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Pedri No | 0.989 | — | $264.9k | $41.2k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Vinícius Júnior Yes | 0.0070 | — | $444.7k | $51.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Vinícius Júnior No | 0.993 | — | $444.7k | $51.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Vitinha Yes | 0.043 | — | $28.3k | $12.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Vitinha No | 0.957 | — | $28.3k | $12.8k | polymarket |
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- harry_kane Harry Kane
- ousmane_dembele Ousmane Dembélé
- other Other Winner
- vinicius-junior Vinícius Júnior
- pedri Pedri
- erling-haaland Erling Haaland
- jude-bellingham Jude Bellingham
- mohamed-salah Mohamed Salah
- kylian-mbappe Kylian Mbappé
- lamine-yamal Lamine Yamal
- michael-olise Michael Olise
- cole-palmer Cole Palmer
- cristiano-ronaldo Cristiano Ronaldo
- vitinha Vitinha
- luis-diaz Luis Diaz
- declan-rice Declan Rice
- khvicha-kvaratskhelia Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
§ Linked markets
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #5117: expansion: detected entity "Vinícius Júnior" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608546
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $444.7k
- Status
- Active
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #5118: expansion: detected entity "Pedri" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608548
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $264.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #5119: expansion: detected entity "Erling Haaland" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608541
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $247.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #5121: expansion: detected entity "Jude Bellingham" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608542
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $192.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #5122: expansion: detected entity "Mohamed Salah" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608544
- Matched
- 2d ago
- Volume
- $120.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7447: expansion: detected entity "Kylian Mbappé" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608540
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $107.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7628: expansion: detected entity "Lamine Yamal" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608545
- Matched
- 6h ago
- Volume
- $63.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7758: expansion: detected entity "Michael Olise" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608551
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $45.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Cole Palmer win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7841: expansion: detected entity "Cole Palmer" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608549
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $38.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7988: expansion: detected entity "Cristiano Ronaldo" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608564
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #7994: expansion: detected entity "Vitinha" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608554
- Matched
- 5h ago
- Volume
- $28.3k
- Status
- Active
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #8038: expansion: detected entity "Luis Diaz" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608561
- Matched
- 4h ago
- Volume
- $26.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #8075: expansion: detected entity "Declan Rice" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608552
- Matched
- 4h ago
- Volume
- $24.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
proposal #8215: expansion: detected entity "Khvicha Kvaratskhelia" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 608553
- Matched
- 4h ago
- Volume
- $19.5k
- Status
- Active