US Elections
2026 US Senate Election - Montana
2026_us_senate_montana resolves 2026-11-03
- Category
- US Elections
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 5
- Linked markets
- 4 · 3 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #10892: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=6 · venues=3 · candidates=4 · joke_filtered=0 · signature=[2026,senate,montana,election]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
Democrats yes | 0.612 | — | $10 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ Yes | 0.070 | — | $31.9k | $14.1k | polymarket | |
|
Manifold Markets
us
|
NOT Democrats no | 0.388 | — | $10 | $10 | manifold | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
↳ No | 0.930 | — | $31.9k | $14.1k | polymarket | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
Independent yes | 0.170 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
PredictIt
us
|
NOT Independent no | 0.830 | — | —1 | —1 | predictit | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Republicans Yes | 0.795 | — | $37.3k | $11.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Republicans No | 0.205 | — | $37.3k | $11.7k | polymarket |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- democrats Democrats
- elections Elections
- independent Independent
- republicans Republicans
- other Other
§ Linked markets
Democrats win Maine and Alaska US Senate Election?
proposal #10982: title_jaccard=0.38 · date_prox=0.97 · category=us_elections · canonical_outcome=democrats · party_office_match=senate
- External ID
- LNP9dQLcQL
- Matched
- 9h ago
- Volume
- $10
- Status
- Active
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
proposal #10980: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=republicans · party_office_match=senate · us_state_match=mt
- External ID
- 630832
- Matched
- 9h ago
- Volume
- $37.3k
- Status
- Active
Will the Democrats win the Montana Senate race in 2026?
proposal #10981: title_jaccard=0.43 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=democrats · party_office_match=senate · us_state_match=mt
- External ID
- 630831
- Matched
- 9h ago
- Volume
- $31.9k
- Status
- Active
Which party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Montana? — Independent
proposal #10978: title_jaccard=0.71 · category=us_elections · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=independent · party_office_match=senate · us_state_match=mt
- External ID
- predictit_contract_33519
- Matched
- 9h ago
- Volume
- $0
- Status
- Active