Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Event №165 · Last revised 2026-05-02
Open

US Elections

2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Nomination

2026_massachusetts_democratic_senate_primary resolves 2026-09-01

Category
US Elections
Resolution basis
—
Canonical outcomes
4
Linked markets
6 · 2 venues

§ Cross-venue price panel

Cross-venue price panel
VenueOutcome Current24h Δ VolumeLiquidity 30dLink
Polymarket us
Ayanna Pressley Yes 0.0005 — $2.0k $1.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.010 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Ayanna Pressley No 1.000 — $2.0k $1.8k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.990 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
Ed Markey Yes 0.695 — $9.5k $259 polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.820 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Ed Markey No 0.305 — $9.5k $259 polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.180 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
Seth Moulton Yes 0.310 — $8.7k $1.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ yes 0.170 — —1 —1 predictit
Polymarket us
NOT Seth Moulton No 0.690 — $8.7k $1.5k polymarket
PredictIt nz
↳ no 0.830 — —1 —1 predictit

1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.

§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)

  • NOT Ed Markey +99bps
    predictit NO 0.180 · polymarket YES 0.690 1300 bps gross · 1201 bps fees · mid-based · 4h ago
  • NOT Seth Moulton +199bps
    polymarket NO 0.690 · predictit YES 0.170 1400 bps gross · 1201 bps fees · mid-based · 10m ago

§ Spread history

  1. 10m ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  2. 20m ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  3. 31m ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  4. 41m ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  5. 53m ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  6. 1h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  7. 1h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  8. 2h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  9. 2h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  10. 2h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  11. 2h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  12. 2h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  13. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  14. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  15. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  16. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  17. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  18. 3h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  19. 4h ago Ed Markey polymarket YES 0.690 · predictit NO 0.180 mid-based +99bps
  20. 4h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  21. 4h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  22. 4h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  23. 4h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  24. 4h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  25. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  26. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  27. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  28. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  29. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  30. 5h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  31. 6h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  32. 6h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  33. 6h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  34. 6h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  35. 6h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  36. 7h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  37. 7h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  38. 7h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  39. 7h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  40. 7h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.635 mid-based +749bps
  41. 11h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.625 mid-based +849bps
  42. 11h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.625 mid-based +849bps
  43. 11h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.620 mid-based +899bps
  44. 11h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  45. 11h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  46. 12h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  47. 12h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  48. 12h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  49. 12h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  50. 12h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  51. 13h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  52. 13h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.690 mid-based +199bps
  53. 15h ago Seth Moulton predictit YES 0.170 · polymarket NO 0.695 mid-based +149bps
  54. 15h ago Ed Markey polymarket YES 0.480 · predictit NO 0.180 mid-based +2199bps

Showing most recent 108 observations within your tier's window. Subscribe to see deeper history →

§ Probability-sum arbs

For this categorical event, one or more venues' YES prices sum to more than $1.00 across all candidates — the probability axiom requires the sum to be ≈ $1.00, so the excess is a within-venue arb signal. Selling every YES leg captures the excess upfront; exactly one candidate resolves YES at $1.00, the rest at $0.

  1. polymarket
    Sum of YES = $1.060 across 3 candidates — excess 6¢
    605 bps

§ Recent news

Reference Wikipedia: 2026 United States Senate elections ↗

No news has been matched to this event yet. As Storm's news matcher links incoming items from its public-source feed (USGS, NOAA, FRED, Census, BEA, the White House, State Dept, DOD, Wikinews, Wikipedia, Metaculus, etc.) to canonical events, recent updates appear here. Until then, see the Wikipedia reference above.

§ Canonical outcomes

  • ayanna_pressley Ayanna Pressley
  • ed_markey Ed Markey
  • seth_moulton Seth Moulton
  • other Other