Eyewall Markets Market Compendium
Reference § 03 · Calibration · Public document
Information only

How well each venue's prices match actual outcomes

Venue calibration

Horizon: 7 days before resolution Recomputed weekly

For every resolved binary event in the last 365 days, Storm compares each venue's price 7 days before resolution to the actual outcome. Lower Brier score = better-calibrated. A positive "signed error" means the venue's YES price was systematically higher than reality (over-confident on YES); negative means under-confident.

No calibration data yet — the weekly recompute populates this table from resolved binary events with linked markets and snapshot history at the chosen horizon. Check back after the next Sunday recompute.

Signal track record

For each signal kind Storm publishes, the directional hit rate over the last 365 days against canonical events that have since resolved. Lower Brier = better-calibrated when the signal carries a probability; hit rate is gated on ≥ 30 fires before publication. See methodology § 4 for what each signal means.

probability_sum_arb
in development
11 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Wikipedia attention spike
in development
5 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Cross-venue spread
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Insider proxy (Futuur OOM/USDC)
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Cross-venue real-vs-play
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
News mispricing
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
News-event link
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Stale book
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Price move
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Storm consensus
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Sibling-market gap
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
Hierarchy violation
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)
implication_arb
in development
0 fires (need ≥ 30 to publish)

Calibration is computed only on resolved binary events with at least one linked market and a price snapshot at the requested horizon. Events with no linked market on a given venue are excluded from that venue's score. Multi-candidate (categorical) events are not yet scored here — see the methodology page for current limitations.