Geopolitics
Next World Leader to Leave Office Before 2027
world_leader_next_out_2027 resolves 2026-12-31
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Resolution basis
- —
- Canonical outcomes
- 26
- Linked markets
- 30 · 2 venues
Synthesized from event_discovery proposal #9432: llm_two_phase:openrouter/auto · phase-b · matched=24 · venues=1 · candidates=23 · joke_filtered=0 · signature=[next,leader,out,2027]
§ Cross-venue price panel
| Venue | Outcome | Current | 24h Δ | Volume | Liquidity | 30d | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Polymarket
us
|
Ahmed Yes | 0.0005 | — | $146.9k | $11.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Ahmed No | 1.000 | — | $146.9k | $11.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Anthony Albanese Yes | 0.0005 | — | $125.8k | $25.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Anthony Albanese No | 1.000 | — | $125.8k | $25.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Benjamin Netanyahu Yes | 0.0055 | — | $1.12M | $24.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Benjamin Netanyahu No | 0.995 | — | $1.12M | $24.0k | polymarket | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
Lai Ching-te yes | 0.072 | — | $1.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Kalshi
us
|
NOT Lai Ching-te no | 0.927 | — | $1.1k | —1 | kalshi | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Claudia Sheinbaum Yes | 0.0005 | — | $130.1k | $13.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Claudia Sheinbaum No | 1.000 | — | $130.1k | $13.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Delcy Rodríguez Yes | 0.0015 | — | $115.8k | $11.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Delcy Rodríguez No | 0.999 | — | $115.8k | $11.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Donald Trump Yes | 0.0015 | — | $340.4k | $29.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Donald Trump No | 0.999 | — | $340.4k | $29.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Emmanuel Macron Yes | 0.0015 | — | $173.0k | $30.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Emmanuel Macron No | 0.999 | — | $173.0k | $30.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Friedrich Merz Yes | 0.0010 | — | $146.1k | $20.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Friedrich Merz No | 0.999 | — | $146.1k | $20.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gavin Newsom Yes | 0.0005 | — | $426.2k | $28.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gavin Newsom No | 1.000 | — | $426.2k | $28.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Gustavo Petro Yes | 0.0010 | — | $152.2k | $13.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Gustavo Petro No | 0.999 | — | $152.2k | $13.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Javier Milei Yes | 0.0005 | — | $132.6k | $12.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Javier Milei No | 1.000 | — | $132.6k | $12.9k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Keir Starmer Yes | 0.432 | — | $1.97M | $85.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Keir Starmer No | 0.568 | — | $1.97M | $85.7k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Kim Jong Yes | 0.0005 | — | $95.5k | $16.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Kim Jong No | 1.000 | — | $95.5k | $16.8k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Luiz Inácio Lula Yes | 0.0015 | — | $164.4k | $16.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Luiz Inácio Lula No | 0.999 | — | $164.4k | $16.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Mahmoud Abbas Yes | 0.089 | — | $262.4k | $11.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Mahmoud Abbas No | 0.911 | — | $262.4k | $11.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Miguel Díaz-Canel Yes | 0.0055 | — | $165.2k | $20.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Miguel Díaz-Canel No | 0.995 | — | $165.2k | $20.4k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Pedro Sánchez Yes | 0.0020 | — | $210.1k | $9.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Pedro Sánchez No | 0.998 | — | $210.1k | $9.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Yes | 0.065 | — | $564.5k | $69.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Recep Tayyip Erdoğan No | 0.935 | — | $564.5k | $69.6k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Sanae Takaichi Yes | 0.0065 | — | $454.9k | $18.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Sanae Takaichi No | 0.994 | — | $454.9k | $18.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Sébastien Lecornu Yes | 0.0005 | — | $208.2k | $15.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Sébastien Lecornu No | 1.000 | — | $208.2k | $15.0k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Viktor Orbán Yes | 0.980 | — | $330.6k | $37.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Viktor Orbán No | 0.020 | — | $330.6k | $37.5k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Vladimir Putin Yes | 0.0015 | — | $479.7k | $24.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Vladimir Putin No | 0.999 | — | $479.7k | $24.1k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Volodymyr Zelenskyy Yes | 0.011 | — | $179.0k | $16.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Volodymyr Zelenskyy No | 0.990 | — | $179.0k | $16.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
Xi Jinping Yes | 0.077 | — | $8.87M | $338.3k | polymarket | |
|
Polymarket
us
|
NOT Xi Jinping No | 0.923 | — | $8.87M | $338.3k | polymarket |
1 "—" appears in the volume or liquidity column either because the venue's public read endpoint doesn't expose that figure, or because the value Storm observed was zero. Either way, Storm has no positive depth or activity signal to display — not a statement that the market is dead on the venue itself.
§ Current spreads (last 24h, ≥ 20 bps)
No open spreads at or above the 20 bps threshold in the last 24 hours.
§ Spread history
No spread observations recorded yet. As the detector runs, each (venue_a, venue_b, outcome) observation above the dedup threshold lands here.
§ Canonical outcomes
- ahmed Ahmed
- anthony_albanese Anthony Albanese
- benjamin_netanyahu Benjamin Netanyahu
- claudia_sheinbaum Claudia Sheinbaum
- delcy_rodriguez Delcy Rodríguez
- donald_trump Donald Trump
- emmanuel_macron Emmanuel Macron
- friedrich_merz Friedrich Merz
- gavin_newsom Gavin Newsom
- gustavo_petro Gustavo Petro
- javier_milei Javier Milei
- keir_starmer Keir Starmer
- kim_jong Kim Jong
- mahmoud_abbas Mahmoud Abbas
- miguel_diaz_canel Miguel Díaz-Canel
- pedro_sanchez Pedro Sánchez
- recep_tayyip_erdogan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- sanae_takaichi Sanae Takaichi
- sebastien_lecornu Sébastien Lecornu
- viktor_orban Viktor Orbán
- vladimir_putin Vladimir Putin
- volodymyr_zelenskyy Volodymyr Zelenskyy
- xi_jinping Xi Jinping
- other Other
- lula Luiz Inácio Lula
- ching-te Lai Ching-te
§ Linked markets
Will Lai Ching-te leave office before 2027-01-01T15:00:00.000Z?
proposal #9711: expansion: detected entity "Lai Ching-te" not in event canonical_outcomes
- External ID
- KXLAIOUT-LCHI-27JAN01
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $1.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9666: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · category=geopolitics · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=vladimir_putin
- External ID
- 1485222
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $479.7k
- Status
- Active
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9720: expansion: detected entity "Luiz Inácio Lula" not in event canonical_outcomes; category_hint matched
- External ID
- 1485223
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $164.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9664: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=benjamin_netanyahu
- External ID
- 1485215
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $1.12M
- Status
- Active
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9665: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=keir_starmer
- External ID
- 1485219
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $689.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9667: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=sanae_takaichi
- External ID
- 1485225
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $454.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9668: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=donald_trump
- External ID
- 1485220
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $340.4k
- Status
- Active
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9669: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=gavin_newsom
- External ID
- 1485217
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $426.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9671: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=mahmoud_abbas
- External ID
- 1485226
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $218.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9672: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=sebastien_lecornu
- External ID
- 1485224
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $208.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9673: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=pedro_sanchez
- External ID
- 1485228
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $210.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9674: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=emmanuel_macron
- External ID
- 1485211
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $173.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9677: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=gustavo_petro
- External ID
- 1485231
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $152.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9678: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=claudia_sheinbaum
- External ID
- 1485229
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $130.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9679: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=viktor_orban
- External ID
- 1485232
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $135.5k
- Status
- Active
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9680: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=volodymyr_zelenskyy
- External ID
- 1485221
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $179.0k
- Status
- Active
Will Javier Milei be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9681: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=javier_milei
- External ID
- 1485218
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $132.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9683: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=anthony_albanese
- External ID
- 1485216
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $125.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9684: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=friedrich_merz
- External ID
- 1485227
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $146.1k
- Status
- Active
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9686: title_jaccard=0.33 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=xi_jinping
- External ID
- 1485214
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $115.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9670: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=recep_tayyip_erdogan
- External ID
- 1485212
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $215.6k
- Status
- Active
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9675: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=miguel_diaz_canel
- External ID
- 1485230
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $165.2k
- Status
- Active
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9676: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=ahmed
- External ID
- 1485234
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $146.9k
- Status
- Active
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9685: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=delcy_rodriguez
- External ID
- 1485233
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $115.8k
- Status
- Active
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
proposal #9687: title_jaccard=0.30 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=kim_jong
- External ID
- 1485213
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $95.5k
- Status
- Active
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
proposal #9702: title_jaccard=0.11 · date_prox=1.00 · year_overlap · canonical_outcome=xi_jinping
- External ID
- 559651
- Matched
- 2h ago
- Volume
- $8.75M
- Status
- Active
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
proposal #9712: date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=keir_starmer
- External ID
- 666655
- Matched
- 48m ago
- Volume
- $1.28M
- Status
- Active
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
proposal #9716: date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=recep_tayyip_erdogan
- External ID
- 567690
- Matched
- 48m ago
- Volume
- $348.9k
- Status
- Active
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?
proposal #9718: date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=viktor_orban
- External ID
- 1116701
- Matched
- 48m ago
- Volume
- $195.1k
- Status
- Active
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?
proposal #9737: date_prox=1.00 · canonical_outcome=mahmoud_abbas
- External ID
- 1117256
- Matched
- 18m ago
- Volume
- $44.4k
- Status
- Active